Cory Hamasaki's DC Y2K Weather Report V2, # 12 "March 20, 1998 - 651 days to go." WRP68 (c) 1997, 1998 Cory Hamasaki - I grant permission to distribute and reproduce this newsletter as long as this entire document is reproduced in its entirety. You may optionally quote an individual article but you should include this header down to the tearline. I do not grant permission to a commercial publisher to reprint this in print media. As seen in USENET:comp.software.year-2000 http://www.elmbronze.demon.co.uk/year2000/ http://www.kiyoinc.com/HHResCo.html --------------------tearline ----------------------------- Please fax or email copies of this to your geek pals, especially those idiots who keep sending you lightbulb, blonde, or Bill Gates jokes, and urban legends like the Arizona rocket car story. If you have a Y2K webpage, feel free to host the Weather Reports. Don't forget- April 2, 3 1998, Geek Out. Project Dumbass needs you. In this issue: 1. Washington Post Ads. 2. The box. 3. DC WRP goes for fee? 4. Reader's Mailbox 5. DC Y2K Meeting with Senator Robert Bennett (R Utah) 6. Bug Out Bag 7. CCCC --------- Washington Post Job Ads --- Sunday March 15, 1998, http://www.washingtonpost.com The Post did it again, another massive issue with thousands of geek-wanted, PLEASE!!!! -sob-, we're doomed, halp-halp, I'm so afraid, about 30 pages, I didn't bother reading them, they're so dull, stupid almost. We're the leader, we're innovative, a great company... give me a break. I'd want to build a company so good, with such incredible benefits that people would seek me out. The Post has run 3 High-Tech, geek-a-rama, job promotion issues in 1998. They used to do this once a year, now it's a monthly event. --------- the box ----------- We're in this mess because there's inertia in thought. Most people, all horn-hairs, think inside the box, can't see the obvious if it takes a new thought. It takes a lot of effort, a massive amount of examples to open people's eyes. Like most people, I like to think that I have a patent on thinking but hey, I could be fooling myself too. It might be that I was just lucky; in 1979, I saw a 4 mainframes and their supposedly rock solid mainframe operating system fall over. In the dump, I found '000197AF', the mark of the beast, the clue to the truth. I spent the next decade looking for the truth. In the late 1980's during the great mainframe programmer's recession, I sat on the sidelines doing Pee Cee Wee Nee work at a pittance, $70,000/year and took graduate level classes in computer science. I took three classes in computer security and asked my professor if he had given any thought to 'the century end' problem. At that time, the term Y2K had not yet been coined. Has been discussed thoroughly on comp.risks, he said, they're way ahead... so in the late 1980's, I got an Internet account and using DOS terminal emulators, I started tracking the problem; A couple times a week, I'd FTP to SRA for the most recent Risks Journal. Turns out that comp.risks and the academics who infest it, had only the most theoretical, hazy understanding of the problem; the pattern in comp.risks is, someone raises an issue, perhaps because a computer failure somewhere kills someone; next, a flurry of postings analyze and reduce the problem to IF-THEN logic, set theoretic, or a finite state automata; a couple posters recite the mantra, 'the risks are obvious', and they close with a pun or two. It's all very tweedy, ivy covered, proper and peer reviewed. The box for them is the academic world, which doesn't deal with production system issues, too sweaty, smelly, and well, frankly, working class. I ran into an old geek last week, he started to reminisce about Wylbur/Milton JES mods, IKJEFLD, IKJEFLC, and the S/370 168-3. Hands on, down and dirty, crank code, Man Vs. System. There are other boxes. Here's the reason why industry right-sized in the 1980's. Standard accounting takes all the vague general expenses of a company and lumps them into a single total called 'overhead'. Office space, pencils, coffee, insurance, education (or horn-hair junkets), if it totals a million dollars and there are two million dollars of salaries paid. Each dollar of salary is burdened by 50 cents, 50% overhead or 1.5 multiplier, it's called. If you, as an experienced gear-head, earned $60K in 1985, your cost to the company (and client if you're billed out) is $90K. A nubie, college-puke, earning $30K costs the company only $45K, thus speaketh the accounting system. But, but, what's in the extra $15K? Office space, training, insurance, for each of these items, the higher paid person pays twice as much. You need a cube, your price is $5,000/year; the nubie next to you is only charged $2,500. You go to a seminar, your cost is $900, the nubie pays $450... thus speaketh the accounting system. Any self respecting horn-hair, armed with VisiCalc or Lotus 123, can crank these numbers and can, did, discover that, Yaahhhh! These doddering old fools are sucking the life blood out of my budget, I can't afford to give them $5,000 for a cubical; let's get some economical clueless nubies in here... I need to pump up my bottom line. So we take a two week outage because we don't have the pro, the geezer who designed the system, so the F*** what, that doesn't come out of MY bonus. If Chuck Keating, Michael Milken, or Jeffry Levit devised a system like this, they'd go to jail but because accountants and horn-hairs can only think inside the box, this is a generally accepted accounting practice... thus speaketh the accounting system. In the early 1980's, when the horn-hairs discovered spreadsheets and started to do their budgets and analyze them, the great geek right-sizing began. Please, please, horn-hairs, don't try to think. I know that sitting at a monitor with a spreadsheet in front of you looks high-tech, you feel like you're thinking but you're not, you're engaged in self-deception, don't think; please, have a donut, look out the window, please stop. What does this have to do with Y2K.... Well, it's one reason that we're in this mess. The pro's, the over-the-hill geeks, the ones who would have seen this coming were right-sized in the 1980's, get your useless, expensive butt out of here. It's the old pro's who built the systems, who have the long-view, who know what it takes to fix these things, who sweated blood in the 1960's, 1970's, and early 1980's to build them, who know the value to the company of the back room enterprise systems, who did the analysis, who can maintain large systems. What do we have left, now that the pro's have been right-sized? Clueless nubies who are grasping at straws, gibbering like chimps at the zoo, slapping the keyboards, faster and faster, DOS based apps, no, Presentation Manager, no, Windows 3.1, no, Powerbuilder, no, Applications Manager, X, Smalltalk, NeXT, SQL-Server, Oracle Tools, faster and faster, Win32, Visual Basic, JAVA, HTML, XML... churning systems, clicking them up, slamming them into service, windows, buttons, slider bars, graphics, faster and faster and each time, the system gets more awkward, less useful, more confusing, and less reliable. Summary - Visicalc and 123 let the hornhairs analyze their budgets; they decided that they couldn't afford competant people; laid off senior technical (expensive) people; systems go to hell; "...this is another fine mess you've gotten me into...", Oliver Hardy to Stan Laurel. Solution for Corporations - Subscribe to the for-fee Enterprise Edition DC WRP, I warned you a year ago that there would be a programmer shortage, some listened, most didn't; I'm not giving away the rest of the story. <Hint to the crankers, get ready to saddle up for one hell of a ride.> --------- DC WRP goes For Fee? -------------- Yes and no, the ezine is yours, a labor of love, click it up on the hosting web pages, read it on USENET, send it to your pals and laugh and cry together as the civilized world goes wacky. I am allocating a few stray synapses to a subscription printed newsletter. A free tip to businesses, open or expand your lines of credit. While this doesn't help a business that's already over extended, it would help ease the shock if ample credit is quickly available to those businesses who do qualify. This would allow you to hire temporary staff, ride out irregularities in the market, pay programmers and consultants, etc. Second free tip for businesses, large enterprises; you can save a half million or more a year on your hardware and software rentals, leases, and loan payments. Drop me an email and I will give you a reference that will save you a million dollars or more between now and Y2K. -----------Readers Mailbox -------- ** Reply to note from XXX XXXXXXX <XXXX@XXXXXXXX.XXXX.net> Fri, 13 Mar 1998 11:32:50 -0500 > > Cory, > > Forgive the excessive bandwidth use here. Please. > > After this note is a post you sent me 11/1997. I send it along as a > demonstration of just how far you have come in a few short months. > It speaks for itself. If you have already had your nose rubbed > in this don't waste your time with it. No problem, I understand. I'm not saying that we'll see 50 million dead in the U.S., or even 500,000. I'm saying that those are three possible scenarios. Unlike some people, I can't see what the societal response will be to Y2K problems. Consider the section on all the safety systems in my car, up to life insurance. I don't expect to be in a car accident but I do fasten my 3 point belt. > > Cory, I have just read your latest WRP, caught thru G. Norths site. > > If someone had told me a year ago that the words of an overaged chubby > geek in Washington DC would scare me as bad as this I would have > laughed. > I just finished reading your report and after I change my drawers out > I expect to not release pucker for about a week. > > Our preps will get boosted up a magnitude as of today. Between you and > RickC > I may never sleep a good nights sleep again. We kill 40,000 in automobiles every year. I'd bet a hundred bucks even money that Y2K kills less than that. However... if there is a one in fifty chance that it does cause civilization to collapse, it's cheap insurance to spend a week this year and a couple, five hundred bucks to build a shed. I'd need, what, 12 sheets of T-111 for the walls, 50 2x4's, 12 3/4 exterior ply for the floor and roof. Wood stove, some ducting, two windows, shingles, paint, some hardware, a door, the foundation. As I said in the last WRP, if it's a fizzle, my pal can always use the storage shed. If he and I work on the shed, we could build it in two days. Drag out the saw, hammer, and have at it! > > Hint 1: my local feed store had field grade wheat for $9 a hundred > bagged. > Can be cleaned for human eatin. As is for chickens and animules. > Field grade means it has some weed seeds and bits of chaf and sticks in > it. > (I plan on having a ton nitrogen packed to feed those who come to the > door. > First 200 pounds already nitro stored in drums.) Same for popcorn (easy > to grind > into meal) at $10/50lbs. Nitrogen packed it keeps for 10 years and is > easy to do. > I can ALWAYS feed it to my chickens or the horses next door. > > Hint 1(a): Barrels of grain are good bullet resistant cover stacked > inside > a barn or shed wall. It's insulation against the cold too. The farm is on the western side of the mountains. How do we grind the grain? I've seen people doing it with a rolling pin rock in a rock wok. > > Hint 2: We are shopping the local Goodwill stores and thrift shops. > Buying > up every useful book we can find, and all the warm > blankets/sweaters/gloves/etc > they have each visit. Comes to about $10 an arm load. It all gets washed > and > packed for future need. SOMEDAY we will run into SOMEONE who NEEDS some > warm clothes and a blanket. Good! Low cost actions that we can take during the seven fat years. > > Why the hints ? Your shack on the farm would be a nice place to store > a ton or two of cheap grain and a dozen boxes of warm clothes/blankets. > Absolutely, thanks for the tips, we haven't built it yet but that's the project for this year. A week of work, a few hundred dollars, a couple weekends and we've prepped a long-haul lifeboat. It's not a palace but it will be warm, dry, far from the city and it's miles from a major road. It's not even on a road, the farm is landlocked with an easement through another farmer's corn field. There's a Southern States about 15 miles away. I'll check them out. > Warmest regards, > XXX XXXXXXX A big DC Y2K WRP thanks to our reader. ----------- DC Y2K Meeting Notes ------------ The important part - The buffet - fried squid, spicy chicken breasts, pizza rounds, sushi, multi-colored corn chips, sauces, crackers, asparagas, brocolli, cheeses, I didn't get to it all. DD hung around the squid, there was a sound like a hoover vacuum cleaner starting -whoooosh- th-unk, th-unk, it's tasty but salty, I need something cold and bubbly... with a twist of lime. There was food left over... Oh, Greg was late. The Merlot was a soft 1995, slightly bruised as if the grape pressers had calloused feet. I saw Bob Bemer! He was scurrying around the chips and dip. He left copies of his manifesto, an odd but interesting six pages on lime green paper typed in a tiny courier font. Bemer's manifesto repeats his claim to be the inventor of '27' in 1960, the key above Tab on my keyboard. Isn't '27' derived from the prior art of the Shift-Out of teletypes? Once I realized Bemer was there, I ran around looking for him but, sadly, like a Y2K ninja, he had vanished... there was only a cloud of greasy black smoke left. Check out http://bmrsoftware.com, for someone who wants standard dates, Bemer is a little loose on URLs. But on to the meeting. Senator Robert F. Bennett (R Utah) Senate Financial Services & Banking Committee, expected to be appointed head of the yet to be announced Senate Y2K Committee. Senator Bennett was entertaining, had a clear vision of the Y2K problem, spoke for an hour and a half on the problem from the government's perspective. Sound bites - A year ago, there were no Y2K compliant ATMs, now a few percent of the ATMs are Y2K compliant. We cannot solve all problems in time (about banking) We must keep the checks clearing, keep the money available. (about NCUA) There will be credit unions that go bankrupt. (about people) Alan Greenspan is a believer. Arthur Levitt calls him in a cold sweat. He is watching Ed Yardeni ratchet up his estimate from 30%, 35%, 40%, 60% and believes that we're in for a rocky road. Bob Rubin and the IMF are on board. (best laugh) Wrote to Bill Clinton about Y2K and a Y2K Czar, Bill didn't respond, he may have had other things on his mind. (about congress) He has Senator Lott and Dashel on board. There will be no programmer draft. He's a free marketeer. Little problems in key places can cause a worldwide recession. There will be an enormous wealth transfer, analogous to the oil shock that transferred wealth from the industrialized countries to a few oil states in the middle east. Counties and cities are a problem. He pointed out that we have counties and cities that are larger than states. < States? Try larger than some nations. How does Greater LA (12 million) or Greater Chicago (8 million) compare to say, Sweden (9 million) or New Zealand (4 million). Even if the Feds make it, the counties and cities could fail. > Triage, mission critical v. non-mission critical. Have contingencies in place. What are your back up plans. Gas, water, power, communications. We have a major problem. This is like World War II. And through it all, through the sense of urgency, there was evidence of a sharp mind, moving the pieces into place to create a solution; optimistic but remaining pragmatic. ---------------- Bug Out Bag ---------------- Your bug out bag - some of you are already in the boondocks in a cabin made of reinforced concrete, after the cement truck left, you dynamited the road, power supplied by a 50 amp Solarex array, wind turbine but most are still in the cities. You need a bug out bag? 20 lbs of the absolute essentials.... What would it be? Not the AR-15, too heavy; compact .22LR handgun and 100 rounds. Arrowheads. Spare workshirt, sweatshirt, socks, jacket. Boots. toothbrush, toothpaste, comb, soap, shaving kit, mirror. Magnifying glass, Nikon 8x21 compact binoculars, leatherman, folding knife, Swiss army knife, compass, maps. Weeks worth of trail food, pot, spoon, fork, matches. Water bottles, 4 oz. of clorox. First aid kit. Sewing kit. String, fishing line, stainless steel wire, cord, 20' rope, plastic bags. Adhesive tape, duct tape. Notebook, pencils. 2 double eagles, 10 dollars in silver dimes. Solar panel rigged to charge an Icom 2 meter battery pack. Icom scanning VHF NBFM transceiver. What are your suggestions for a bug out bag. ---------------- CCCC ----------------------- Post Y2K is about trust and humanity, will it bring out the worse in people or the best... will it be Beruit, Bosnia, Northern Ireland or will we see people putting aside their differences and helping each other. It will be some of both, lots of both, in the same community, sometimes in the same person. I'm running out of topics, if you would like to submit an article for inclusion in the DC WRP, drop me an email. This is a volunteer project until the for-fee version goes, if it goes... I'll be restructuring the webpage, turning it into a commercial site to help pay the rent. Space and links will be available to advertisers. Best matches are programmer tools, recruiting companies, Y2K service providers. I'll be hosting shareware and free Y2K tools too. My goal is to turn it into the Y2K programmer's resource. cory hamasaki 651 days.