Cory Hamasaki's DC Y2K Weather Report V2, # 16
"April 15, 1998 - 625 days to go." WRP72
(c) 1997, 1998 Cory Hamasaki - I grant permission to distribute and
reproduce this newsletter as long as this entire document is reproduced in
its entirety. You may optionally quote an individual article but you should
include this header down to the tearline. I do not grant permission to a
commercial publisher to reprint this in print media.
As seen in
USENET:comp.software.year-2000
http://www.elmbronze.demon.co.uk/year2000/
http://www.kiyoinc.com/HHResCo.html
--------------------tearline -----------------------------
Please fax or email copies of this to your geek pals, especially those
idiots who keep sending you lightbulb, blonde, or Bill Gates jokes,
and urban legends like the Arizona rocket car story.
If you have a Y2K webpage, feel free to host the Weather Reports.
Did you miss Geek Out?
Project Dumbass needs you.
In this issue:
1. Feds go nutz (again)
2. Hoboken
3. Money watch
4. Find the Date
5. What if it's not too bad?
6. Y2K Story, 1
--------- Feds go nutz (again) -----------
Fair Use Doctrine - In case you've forgotten, you're my students, I'm a
cyber-professor, I'm handing out this virtual Xerox of a newspaper article,
we're going to read it in the class and I'll follow with my professorial spin,
no one goes to jail for copyright violation...
- Virtual Xerox Begin -
Rules Waived for Rehiring Computer Experts
By Mike Causey
Wednesday, April 15, 1998; Page B02
Not-so-over-the-hill computer experts, rejoice! Uncle Sam wants --
and will pay -- you.
To prevent U.S. government computers from suffering the world's
greatest memory loss at the turn of the century, Uncle Sam will take
extraordinary steps to reclaim retired brainpower. The folks are
needed, quick, to help solve the so-called year 2000 problem.
Many computers read only the last two digits of a year. Many experts
predict a global computer crash on the last day of this century, when
computers may confuse the year 2000 with the year 1900. If that
happens, some predict it could wipe out, scramble or misplace trillions
of items of data, key records and the like. Many private firms and
banks have already scooped up some of the best retired programmers
and computer scientists, either as regular employees or consultants.
They can draw their retirement pay plus full salary or consultant fees.
But government rules about reemploying federal civilian or military
workers make it financially unattractive for most people to come back
to work for the government. Salary is generally reduced by the
amount of the retiree's pension.
Many of the nation's top computer experts are former feds or military
personnel. Many of the civilians left in the past couple of years --
while the government was downsizing 300,000 jobs -- in order to get
special $25,000 buyout payments. Now, some of them are needed
back on the job. Immediately.
To lure the retirees -- both military and civilian -- back into federal
service, the government plans to waive so-called dual compensation
rules that cut into the pay of rehired civilian or military retirees. It also
will relax premium pay rules, on a case-by-case basis, to make
working holidays and overtime -- on emergency projects -- more
worthwhile. The cost to the government would be minimal, but the
financial incentives for the individual retirees would be tremendous.
Under current rules, retired civilian workers who return to work as
"reemployed annuitants" have their salaries offset by the amount of
their pensions. Retired military officers who are hired by federal
agencies also are subject to the dual compensation rules, which
reduce their military retired pay as much as 40 percent. Both
safeguards were put into law to prevent civilian and military agencies
from allowing workers or officers to retire, on fully indexed pensions,
then be rehired at full federal salaries.
But the Office of Personnel Management, in response to pleas from
federal agencies trying to avoid any kind of year 2000 crash, has
decided to waive reemployment pay rules in this instance.
A special memo to agency heads from OPM Director Janice R.
Lachance says:
"We want to make every effort to give you the human resources
management tools you need to resolve the year 2000 computer
conversion problem." To allow agencies to recruit top experts -- now
retired from government or the military -- OPM will "waive dual
compensation reductions, making it easier to reemploy annuitants who
have the programming skills and system knowledge that you may
need." The order will allow agencies to pay high-ranking employees
full overtime or premium pay for work on emergency projects relating
to the year 2000 problem.
- Virtual Xerox End -
Yippee, Fed-geeks get to double-dip, one day they're a GS14 has-been
programmer, toiling away unappreciated at a gray-metal desk, sitting on a gray
metal chair, the green vinyl leatherette cracked from age, a piece of silver
duct tape holds the chair back on. Scuffed shoes, threadbare elbows, so tired
of living, a-feared of dying, still burping from the mystery meat sandwich GSI
special, whoooaaahhh, thank da lord, maalox keeps without refrigeration.
-poof- a bright light, it's Janice R. Lachance dressed up as Gilda the good
witch, sparklies, a beautiful silver wand with a star, janice speaks, "all my
good little munchkin programmers... today and every day is your birthday
because I have suspended the law against double-dipping, you're free to take
your twenty-five thousand dollar early out bonus and come back dressed in an
Armani Silk and Wool coding suit, no more K-mart shirts for you, no more
baloney about unpaid overtime if not previously authorized."
-the music starts- Ding-dong, the witch is dead, double-dipping's allowed...
The GS14 programmer throws off his shackles, gives out a hearty primal
scream, Aaaaieaaaaah, he's Tarzan, the beltway bandit programmer, he's
swinging from the light fixtures.... He's turning handsprings, there's a Limbo
line starting up, wee-ha!
--------- Hoboken -----------
Covered a lot of ground on this trip, but then, between the flight
delays, the weather, and a tight schedule, I was running non-stop from
7:00 AM, when I fired up the cory-mobile, until 11:30 PM, when SUN Park
dropped me off.
Several issues came up... as usual these must be anonymous. The
programmer turn over in NY is increasing. I find it shocking but then,
I'm a sensitive kind-a guy. The management is still whistling in the
dark... nothing to fear, except fear itself... NOBODY PANIC!, they
scream. I don't know about you but if I hear someone screaming, NOBODY
PANIC!... I'm heading for the nearest exit and knocking down anyone in my way.
Especially if the person screaming is clueless, has terror in their eyes, and
isn't especially worried about my well being.
I got a good corned beef on rye... hard to find in Washington DC, didn't
get the egg cream, maybe next trip.
Rode the limo into Manhattan, we were running late for a meeting at the client
at midtown and ended up hopping out of the car and hoofing the last 4 blocks.
Our driver was apologetic, that's NY morning traffic.
For our second meeting, We took the R-train... somewhere, I recall changing
trains, this was about 12:30 and I was looking for food but Jane, the slave
driver, kept me moving, we rode the subway for about 45 minutes. Fortunately,
I had a couple granola bars with me. ...always prepared.
The bottom line from the meetings... in addition to the geek turnover,
the remediation companies are turning down engagements. The
predictions of a year ago are coming true now. The increased budgets
are starting to hit, some schedules have deadlines at the end of this
year with a reserve of 1Q or 2Q 1999.
I heard the marketeers say that they are turning away projects, they don't
want to do that but their companies are not letting them ink new
contracts. They are being cautious because they want to make their
limited technical resources available to their long term client base. I
found out the going rate in NY for senior technical personnel. You
won't find these numbers on the job web pages. The job web pages are
for junior level contract programmers. Senior technical personnel are
a different comodity. High level consultants bill at 3x the rate of job
shops.
Y2K is lifting some senior technical personnel into the billing range of
high level management consultants. This is a chaotic situation, most of
us will not get the absolutely top numbers but we can raise our rates
above what a yardman gets for running a mower ($65/hour) or a retired
mechanic gets for fixing small Briggs and Stratton engines ($49/hour
plus parts).
I've added a section on rates to my webpage. Rates are a complex issue,
it's like an auction, the values change dynamicly. Based on the state
of the work and the limited time left, the increases are startling; it is
important to team up with a company or client that has a history of treating
programmers well. Factor in the intangibles, commute time, technical aspects,
as well as the cash equivalents, stock options, bonuses, 401(k), percent of
medical insurance, vacation days.
If they are not going to make it, do you want to earn $120/hour at a
firm that will fail in 2000, will not pay you for your last 60 days,
will leave you with a reputation as having been part of a massive IT
failure, and scrambling for a gig? Or would it be wiser to work for a
little less, $85/hour but for an employer who treats you well and has
a plan for you and them after 2000.
--------- Money Watch --------------
The numbers continue to flow in. Caution - the dollars do not mean
the same thing to every organization. Some are applying the dollars to
consultants, others to hardware upgrades, some will go for software,
tools, offshore factory jobs, bonuses for current staff. What is
significant is that the budgets are increasing... they are showing us
the money and we like it. The dollars are on my webpage at
http://www.kiyoinc.com/HHResCo.html
---------- Find the Date ------------
The find the date thread in c.s.y2k should make people happy.
C.s.y2k, not technical? Dave raised the point that while 99365F and
123098 look like dates in hex dumps, that 00003F and 010100 don't jump
out at you. We're used to looking for the 95, 96, 97, 98 as years and
00, 01 are harder to see. I've taken his data and have run it into the
REDWOOD Y2K tool. I'll be posting my results to the thread so that we
bit-heads can discuss this issue in the open. ...and please, denial
heads and those who think this is all just a scam by programmers to
raise their rates and those who think that some Army ground-pounders can
trace bugs in software using a 'configuration management' tool (whatever
that is), please; feel free to jump in and correct our source code. You
can even use 'configuration management' (whatever that is.)
Oh, and you bit-heads will like this... The Rexx lineout verb
does a write with append. When I ran Dave's data through it, it appended
it to the end of an existing EBCDIC file. I moved the file to my
development system and ran REDWOOD against it and it produced very
strange results. The REDWOOD UI shows me the LRECL, the DSNAME, and the
hex from the sample. It didn't make sense. The hex was wrong.
My REDWOOD test directory had other host files in it, I deleted them,
same results. I wanted to make sure that it was reading the right file.
REDWOOD produces a log file. I looked at it and didn't find anything.
I reviewed the source and rebuilt the binary, same results. After 30
minutes the light went on. -bing-bong- configuration management? Sure,
if you know what the configuration is, know all the side effects, know
clearly and precisely what should be where and how it interacts with
everything else... but to imagine that a military tank commander or
any other kind of non computer specialist can make any sense out of
software, that's terribly naive, child-like.
We're not talking about someone misusing a helicopter, swiping it to
stick up a 7-11; in that case, you can look at the records and know
with some certainty who had access to it and when it was taken. You can see
it flying around. Software is different, it's just a stream of zeros and ones
that may or may not have a specific meaning.
The Y2K tribunal would have to know that the lineout verb does a write
with append and that there was a high probability that there was a
pre-existing file, they would have to trace through the subdirectory
structure and declare that a prudent programmer would not be deceived by
the file and would not erase all other files in an attempt to localize
the error.
Oh, they'd only come into play in 'serious' cases or to make an example...
well, how would you decide what's serious?
No way. ...for those who haven't been following c.s.y2k, there is a
thread running about drafting programmers into press-gangs to fix
federal systems. The real code-crankers are arguing that this is not
possible, the denial-heads and wishful-thinkers are suggesting that if
the programmers don't fix the systems as slave coders, they will be
tried in military courts. Sabotage would be detected by 'Configuration
Management' systems, whatever they are.
Please, no one who has ever worked on an Enterprise scale system could
ever imagine anything so looney.
And if Y2K is a crisis, the best way to make it worse and to
'sabotage' the remediation would be to enforce rigid configuration
management rules, and the saboteurs would be the ones who work within
the system, turning it against itself, ... I cannot release sub-module
RTP-3007 to the build disk even though it is a co-req to DRP 05 and a
negative pre-req to DRP 45 because I do not have the Heneral's
crypto-signature on the results of the post-unit-test report from the
QA team. The next QA team meeting is scheduled in 8 days.
So---reeeee. <you butt-head, draft me, will you. I designed the CM
system for a 200 person, 15 year software project.>
Yes, I have been funning with them but those of us who actually have
designed or used CM systems, have all encountered the situation where
a bug regresses and we spend days looking for the cause, cursing
ourselves, why did I do it that way, what was I thinking, what side
effect is working here.
I do not want to discuss this with 'Software Engineers' who have an
academic, ivory tower view, who have never worked on a real system, a
system with more than a couple million lines of code and a couple
hundred programmers. It doesn't work like they taught you in school.
Book learning doesn't count. Y2K is a game for seasoned vets only.
Too few days left now.
---------- What if it's not too bad ---------
In the last few WRPs, I've discussed the end of the world scenario.
Today, I went to the grocery store; today is the day before Easter and
the same people who shop before a snowstorm were there, grabbing hams,
pie crusts, sweet potatoes and asparagas. Why, I don't know. There's a
tradition of buying and preparing more food than anyone needs, setting
it out and letting the leftovers go bad. These people have two or
three Easter dinners, drive from in-law to in-law to make an
appearance and pretend to eat yet another dinner. Yes it's sick but
they also engage in other herd behaviour, invest in mutual funds, buy
SUV's and all the while, if they have a thought, it's not evident to me.
So if Y2K is not horrible, if it hits as a 1-2 on the 5 point
scale. The herds, the herds will still swarm to the supermarkets and
like SUV driving locusts, will strip the shelves and bins bare.
If it's not too bad, they will still be there; remember them, during the
gas crisis, they were driving from gas station to gas station, buying
only a couple dollars worth of gas because their tanks were full but
still jamming the lines.
If it's not too bad, we still need to be prepared. My plan is to avoid the
stores for a month and still be able to conduct my life as normal. This means
4 weeks of the items that I buy on a weekly basis. This is not a substitute
for long haul preparations or the bug out bag. This means increasing the
inventory starting in the fall of 1999.
--------- Y2K Man 1, a story ----------
Y2K + 4, April 19, afternoon.
Joe hefted his bug out bag and headed up into the mountains. The
collapse had been faster than anyone expected. Following the
starvation of 2000, the intercity wars of 2002-2003, Joe had survived by
serving with the Central Atlantic Provisional Military Command until it
simply fell to pieces. Capmac tried to bring order to the region but in the
end, the war between DC, Baltimore, and Richmond effectively depopulated the
Middle Atlantic.
It wasn't so much the shooting but the extremely high population density
in the East, coupled with the breakdown of sanitation, led to a series
of pandemics that killed people faster than the bodies could be buried.
This set the stage for the next pandemic and so on, until now, there
were too few people to maintain the remaining infrastructure and the
collapse continued.
After Capmac failed, after the burning of the Pentagon and the battle of
14th street bridge, when the army of Free Richmond blew up the last of
the Potomac bridges and sealed the Potomac tunnels, Joe decided to head
west, find a place where a lower starting population allowed civilization to
keep hold. There was an Emergency U.S. Government still operating somewhere
in the Shenandoah National Park. Their 40 meter SSB signal came on the air
once a week but was generally ignored except for some jamming from the
Anti-Fed Net of the midwest.
-to be continued....
--------- CCCC -------------
I've added a couple items to the webpage. In addition to the recent
WRP's, I've added a tribute to the programmers who won't be joining us
at the biggest software party ever. I've also added the page that
lists the Y2K budgets of large organizations and some guidelines on
salaries. I'll add some links too, any favorites out there?
I'm taking a poll on salaries, I'd like to know what a pretty good COBOL
code cranker should be paid, 1099, on a 4 month contract. I'm guessing that
pretty good ones are still available at $80-90/hour, it was $40/hour a year
ago.
cory hamasaki