Cory Hamasaki's DC Y2K Weather Report V2, # 18
"April 30, 1998 - 610 days to go." WRP74
(c) 1997, 1998 Cory Hamasaki - I grant permission to distribute and
reproduce this newsletter as long as this entire document is reproduced in
its entirety. You may optionally quote an individual article but you should
include this header down to the tearline. I do not grant permission to a
commercial publisher to reprint this in print media.
As seen in
USENET:comp.software.year-2000
http://www.elmbronze.demon.co.uk/year2000/
http://www.kiyoinc.com/HHResCo.html
--------------------tearline -----------------------------
Please fax or email copies of this to your geek pals, especially those
idiots who keep sending you lightbulb, blonde, or Bill Gates jokes,
and urban legends like the Arizona rocket car story.
If you have a Y2K webpage, feel free to host the Weather Reports.
Did you miss Geek Out?
Project Dumbass needs you.
In this issue:
1. DC Metro
2. cory blows hard at DC Y2K
3. Reader's Mailbox
4. Types
5. Y2K Story 3
6. CCCC
This article clarifies two aspects of the Y2K problem. Why it can't be solved
and maybe you don't want to do the work overseas. My rude comments follow.
Here's a Fair Use doctrine Xerox of an article so I can comment on it.
-------- Virtual Xerox ---------
Metro Stops Payment on Troubled Computer
Officials Predict Delays If Problems Continue
By Alice Reid
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, April 29, 1998; Page B01
Fed up with the poor performance of a $20 million computer that
oversees train operations, Metro officials said yesterday they are
withholding payments on it and are threatening to terminate their
contract with BDM International Inc., the McLean-based firm that
designed and built the equipment.
The computer, which is supposed to pinpoint the position and
operation of every train in Metro's 92-mile system and to manage its
470 switches and 500 signals, has been plagued with problems since it
began operation 15 months ago. Metro officials said yesterday that the
computer has crashed 50 times since then and that BDM has moved
too slowly and ineffectively to address the problems.
The safety of Metro trains has not been compromised by the outages,
officials said, but continued problems could mean delays and service
problems for Metro's 250,000 daily subway passengers.
"The problems present an inconvenience to us and potentially to our
customers," Metro General Manager Richard A. White said yesterday.
"We're taking steps to address them and trying to get the contractor to
do as much as possible."
Metro still owes about $1.3 million to BDM, which recently became a
part of another technology firm, Cleveland-based TRW Inc. Transit
officials said the regional agency is withholding payments while the
two sides discuss ways to resolve the problems. The warranty on the
system runs out June 30.
BDM officials would not comment yesterday on Metro's specific
complaints but did issue a statement through TRW public relations
manager Al Frascella.
"BDM's performance on this contract has been in accordance with all
relevant contract provisions and Washington Metropolitan Area
Transit Authority direction," Frascella said. "The contract is currently
due to be completed as of June 30, 1998, and both BDM and
WMATA personnel are working toward its successful conclusion."
Metro board member Katherine K. Hanley, who also is the County
Board chairman in BDM's home jurisdiction of Fairfax, predicted the
two sides will make peace. "Historically, BDM has been a good
corporate citizen," she said. "I can't imagine that they wouldn't want to
make this work."
The computer unit, which replaced an older one, was designed to
handle Metro's expansion to a 103-mile subway system by 2001.
Metrorail, like other transit systems built within the last
quarter-century, is heavily dependent on high technology. Without the
computer, which operates in the basement of Metro's downtown
headquarters, dispatchers can have difficulty determining trains'
locations within the system. They cannot operate switches, which
send trains to the proper tracks, or signals, which regulate trains'
progress from station to station.
Frequently, the computer screens go blank, which happened most
recently last Thursday morning, or the images on the screens jiggle or
show duplicate train identification numbers. Information called up with
a computer mouse takes a long time to appear, officials said.
The system consists of two computers, one a backup designed to take
over one second after the first computer fails.
"That doesn't happen," said Charles Thomas, Metro's deputy general
manager. "Sometimes it's minutes. When that happens, again the
screens are blank, and we don't have the information we need."
Frustrated Metro officials have hired three additional computer
technicians to work on the equipment and are preparing to hire three
more.
"We're having to reengineer the software ourselves in order to
understand it," White said. "First we couldn't get the source code from
BDM. Then when we got it, it was in a foreign language because
they'd had a contractor working on it overseas. . . . They've had
people come and go. There has not been total continuity."
The contract with BDM was signed in September 1991, and the
complex computer system was designed especially for Metro, officials
said.
While Metro officials wrestle with computer problems, they also are
cracking down on train operators who stop too early along station
platforms and open their rail-car doors while the ends of their trains
are still in the tunnel leading to the station.
Despite officials' increased emphasis on the potential safety problems
of opening train doors while some cars are still in tunnels, there have
been 22 such incidents in the last nine months, compared with 10
during the same period the previous year, Thomas said.
"We're saying we have zero tolerance for a mistake like this, because
the consequences are too serious. You've got the safety of customers
to consider," said White, adding that an open train door in a tunnel can
lead to serious injury if a passenger tries to exit.
Under new regulations issued by Thomas on March 30, any operator
who opens car doors when a train is not aligned properly at a station
platform will be prohibited from driving trains. Previously, the penalty
was suspension.
Operators are directed to make sure that when they stop in stations,
they pull up to markers on the tracks, which are placed for four-car
and six-car trains. That assures drivers that a train's doors can be
opened safely.
The issue is "very sensitive because it's a safety issue and we're very
aware of that," said James Allen, president of the operators union. "I
can understand step-by-step discipline, but . . . going from suspension
to disqualification, I can't agree with that."
When the trend became evident last fall, Thomas said, supervisors
rode with all operators, and operators were reminded to properly align
their trains on track markers in stations before opening doors.
"But even with all of that, the rate of incidents continued," said
Thomas, who then issued the stronger penalty. "Had there been a
turnaround, it wouldn't have been necessary. But it continued,
unabated, as if they were not paying attention."
On average, Metro trains make 29,000 station stops daily, so "in the
scheme of things, the number [of mishaps] is extremely small,"
Thomas said. "But we are concerned."
¸ Copyright 1998 The Washington Post Company
--------End Virtual Xerox ------
This is a small job, only $20 Million in size. Compare this to the $380 million
job that BankAmerica is working on. They've been franticly trying to solve the
problem for 15 months. There's a safety aspect to this. Why can't they just
buy a package at CompUSA and run a PC? Why don't they simply fix the
problem?
This software stuff is hard. Got it, clueless lurkers out there. Only the best
of the best can make software work. And even the best can't do it in a vacuum,
they need a solid test bed (the Time Machine), access to the users, lots of
money to keep the geeks happy.
Software in a foreign language? Blank screens, duplicate numbers. Anyone out
there thinking FAA ATC? This is a taste of the treat that Y2K will bring.
Oh, and you "prove-it, prove-it" buttheads... if you can't see the connection. A
simple $20M system, the system crashes, the system produces bad location data,
15 months and no improvement, they're hiring their own six specialists. They
can't read the source because it came from overseas in a foreign language.
Please "It's simple" buttheads, keep your junk out of c.s.y2k, put on a suit and
tell the DC Metro how simple software is... because you or your wife saw a
computer once. They have 1.3 million dollars left.
Is that sphincter clenching yet? The the room spinning around? Are you still
in denial?
And yes, real geeks, real code crankers can fix problems like this but we won't
do it for chump change.
--------- cory speaks at DC Y2K ----------
Yes, I took a break from running my keyboard and ran my yap at the Dirksen
Senate Office Building. Here's the official recap from Bruce Webster:
Paul Cooksey, Deputy Chief Counsel of the Senate Committee on Small
Business, then got up and offered welcoming remarks, stating the committee's
desire to find the right topics and issues on which to focus in their
upcoming Y2K hearings.
David Eddy (Software Sales Group; deddy@tiac.net) let off the presentations
with a discussion on "the good, the bad, and the possible" with regards to
small businesses and the Year 2000--stating the advantages and disadvantages
that small business have in that regards, and then listing what they can and
should be doing.
Lyn Kelly (National Association of Security Dealers; kellyl@nasd.com)
presented facts and figures from NASD's own efforts to determine the Y2K
status of their 5600 members and to encourage said members to address the
issue promptly and thoroughly.
Cory Hamasaki (HHResearch; hhresco@ibm.net) detailed his Y2K assessment
process and findings for a family-owned retail business, explaining all the
things he needed to check, how he checked them, and what he found along the
way.
Alan Simpson (Communication Links, Inc.; news@comlinks.com) addressed the
"food chain" issue, noting how larger firms are quite reliant upon small
firms (and vice versa) and touching upon some of the larger Y2K issues.
I owe Adrian and another person copies of my write-up but I might just add to it
and make it a WRP.
--------- Reader's Mailbox -------------
Two very shy readers sent these in:
--------- mail 2----------
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/issue/980504/4rais.htm talks about raises
and the fact that many people are asking - and getting - them, and
how portable they are if they don't get what they want. One particularly
telling line:
"According to the National Association of Colleges and Employers, new
computer-science graduates are receiving average starting salaries of
$40,417--an 8.6 percent increase over September 1997"
How does that compare with what you're making ? Compare that to this:
At a small state university in the midwest, they just closed the
posting period for a Systems Analyst - definitely not an entry-level
job - using mainframe 4GL database technology. This position started
(for outside hires) at $36,000. For an inside hire, it would be a 4%
increase over present salary - but the maximum salary right now - for
either internal or external hires - would be about $56K based on the
current wage scale .
At this small state university, the computer programmers are civil
service - in the same bargaining unit as the groundskeepers. It would
be near-impossible to give the computer programmers "keeper" raises
without giving the same percentage to other members of the same
bargaining unit. Other bargaining units are not attractive because
of lack of "continuity of employment" language, and the idea of
NOT being in a bargaining unit at this particular university is not
even worth considering.
The MIS director at this same university was at a state-wide meeting of
computer center personnel, and the lament at this meeting was over how
many positions were going unfilled. I told this MIS director it was
fortunate that there have not (yet) been any staff departures. I didn't
say I know of two that are looking for "offers they can't refuse", and
they're very qualified.
This MIS director is aware that one of the system managers in another
part of the university has left for an fantastic offer. But this
person's backup - a professor - is also looking to leave for the right
offer. Who will run these systems now ?
Another part of the university wants to run its own computer services -
the hardware is cheap, and they feel it's their right to control their
resources - but they don't know what it's going to cost them to staff
it yet. That will be a harsh reality.
Or consider this: At a prestigious university nearby, several depart-
ments are losing staff in droves. New hires are starting at $40K+ - but
now that school has to deal with people that have worked for them for
years, were hired in at $20K, and are now making less than the new
hires. It's not pretty. They got ZERO applicants for a system admin at
$50-$65K. The only ones that will work for under $50K are the ones you
don't want, unless they're desparate to work in that town (spouse was
relocated there, for example).
<amazing, what numbers.>
---------- mail 2 ------
I've been approached about a firm that wants to put a shell around the
legacy systems, turn the clocks back 28 years, and translate all dates
going in or out.
My first question is "How are you going to find all the dates going in
or out?", although I recognize that MIGHT be easier than finding ALL the
dates. What other questions should I ask?
I don't want to post this to the group, because I can't imagine they
don't read it, and they're going to meet me soon. I certainly don't
mind if you post it.
<did you miss the find the date thread? If we only had a few more years... I
could finish REDWOOD and autofind the dates.>
------------ types ----------------------
The Don's.. Prove-it, prove-it, you're rude, how *dare* you, this is a naughty
newsgroup, my brain is big. Last week's Don was named "Klemm".
The true nubie.. Hey, I had an idea, we could window the date. The original
was "Dash".
The PeeCee nubie.. Hey, I had an idea, convert the mainframe to a package from
CompUSA.
The computer nubie.. Hey, I had an idea, we can store more info in 4 bits than
10 digits, even more info in 8 bits. Some are actually in senility.
The survivalist nut-case.. You'll all die but I have lots of lovely guns to
fondle.
The survivalist doesn't-wanna-be.. It's hopeless, we're all doomed, I can't
survive in North America, where there is no Lassa Valley fever, no lions, no
cape buffalo, a mild climate, food everywhere. I'm scared.
The clueless.. say, what is this Year 2K anyway?
The job spammer.. any Cobalt developers here? I have top dollar jobs. Yeah,
how much, oh, $50K/year.... pass.
DD/Shmuel.. obscure complex statement, obscure complex rebuttal, argument
shifts to some language I don't know and my screen fills with diacritical marks.
They might be insulting me or solicting sex but I can't tell the difference.
The Professional.. you guys aren't professionals but the same process that
regulates hairdressers will certify and regulate systems builders. (Yeah right,
I got 29 years on big iron and an M.S. in Computer Science.)
The specialist.. I know all about the National Semiconductor devices used in
some weird-ass application and there's no Y2K problem, I infer from my
vast knowledge of very little that there isn't a Y2K problem. <Yeah right,
spend 29 years on big iron and you'll sing a different song.>
The govie-lovie.. Big government, maybe fascism, will save us. It got the
trains to run on time, maybe it'll fix Y2K.
Greg90210.. Hey, are those women I see? They're paying HOW much?
Frank.. I don't see any women, Kacci would kill me. They're paying HOW much?
and finally cory.. Hey, is that roastbeef I see? They're paying HOW much?
------------ Y2K Man 3, a story -------------------
Y2K + 4, April 19, afternoon.
The last estimates from Capmac and the other military commands, the last
vestige of real Federal authority, was that the population of the U.S. had
fallen to 1/10th the pre-Y2K high, perhaps as low as 10 million
according to the Mountain States' Command. No one knew, wouldn't until a
federal census in 2010.
The wind blew a tumble of clouds from the west, could be rain, might be
time to rig shelter.
Small towns did better, the Amish didn't notice a thing. Joe snugged
into the tarp, tucked a bundle of sticks behind him; they'll stay dry
and will make a nice fire when the storm blows over.
Reports from the Ham operators indicated that the collapse was world wide,
the flow of information and capital had kept South America, Africa, and
parts of Asia together. After Y2K, the flow stopped and entire
economies dissociated into city-states and the lack of co-ordination
torn them apart. How much of Taiwan's economy was geared to producing
finished goods for the West? Once the West was gone, there wasn't
time to redirect their economy to the production of subsistance items. With
the U.S. offline, the flow of cheap grain stopped and the noodle bowls of the
world went empty.
-to be continued...
---------------CCCC -------------------
I put a proposal in on Monday to scale back my DC area contract to 80
hours/month. My client asked for a option for another 400+ hours across the
next year, but I might not have the time available. This contract is at a
relatively low rate but they pay on time and it's *my* system.
Matt and I are looking for higher rate work... If this takes off, I'll be
working it along with my DC contract, I don't want to work more than another
50 hours/month so I may have to tap some of you in c.s.y2k. I have no idea when
or if any of the New Jersey/New York work will pop. I know the work needs to be
done but now it's up to the clients to make their choices.
We geeks need to take regular appraisals of our situations. The rate run up has
been good and there is a lot more money on the table and much, much more work
than we can handle.
The market is up around 100/100, that's either $100K salary with good benefits
or $100/hour no benefits. We've got it knocked as long as we don't go nutz with
the big house, the boat, the Mercedes SUV.
I really-really expect we'll see a job panic this summer... but then, I
expected it last year. Several people have told me that one of my faults is
that I expect others, corps, management, etc. to have a glimmer of a clue.
"Your problem, cory, is that you expect people to act rationally." No, I expect
them to listen when I tell them that the software will break and that if they
don't want broken software, they should pay to fix it.
Put your ear to the ground, hear that rumble, that's the sound of the management
herd stampeding. Did you catch George's posting on job counts? Total jobs on
DICE are 50,597 up from 29,010 about 6 months ago. 74% increase... did you get a
74% raise?
But wait, George also scanned on Y2K, 3557 up from 1445, 146% increase. It
started. Best I can tell, sometime in January, they woke up.
Unfortunately it's too late for most corps. We've got 610 days now... just
enough time for an orderly shutdown... or maybe with some real code crankers, a
cost is no object death march, we can save a few critical industries. If
someone really wanted to save their corp, it could still be done. IF.
cory hamasaki 610 days, 14,655 hours.