Cory Hamasaki's DC Y2K Weather Report V2, # 20
"May 6, 1998 - 604 days to go." WRP76
(c) 1997, 1998 Cory Hamasaki - I grant permission to distribute and
reproduce this newsletter as long as this entire document is reproduced in
its entirety. You may optionally quote an individual article but you should
include this header down to the tearline. I do not grant permission to a
commercial publisher to reprint this in print media.
As seen in
USENET:comp.software.year-2000
http://www.elmbronze.demon.co.uk/year2000/
http://www.kiyoinc.com/HHResCo.html
--------------------tearline -----------------------------
Please fax or email copies of this to your geek pals, especially those
idiots who keep sending you lightbulb, blonde, or Bill Gates jokes,
and urban legends like the Arizona rocket car story.
If you have a Y2K webpage, feel free to host the Weather Reports.
Did you miss Geek Out?
Project Dumbass needs you.
In this issue:
1. Washington Post - Samuelson on Y2K
2. Y2K Haiku
3. Y2K Song
4. Story
5. CCCC
-------- Post Still Nutz about Y2K ----------
Remember my warning last year, you'll know it's happening when it's in the
daily paper every day. Today, Wednesday is the 5th day in a row that Y2K has
been in the Washington Post. Hit the search engine at
http://www.washingtonpost.com for the other articles... the cartoon may not be
searchable.
To save you the trouble of firing up Netscape, here's a Fair Use doctrine clip.
---------- Virtual Xerox -----------
Computer Doomsday?
By Robert J. Samuelson
Wednesday, May 6, 1998; Page A19
I plead guilty to journalistic incompetence for ignoring what may be one of
the decade's big stories: the Year 2000 problem.
Among technical types, it's shortened to the Y2K problem (K stands for
thousand) and refers to the dangers of computers that can't recognize the
new century. Economist Edward Yardeni of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, who has
studied the problem, rates the odds that it will trigger a deep recession at
60 percent. He fears something ranking with the 1974-75 slump, the second
worst since World War II. In 1975 unemployment averaged 8.5 percent.
Even this doesn't convey the everyday disruptions that could conceivably fray
society's fabric. In our computer-dependent world, here are some possibilities:
failed telephone systems; power brownouts; a hobbled air traffic control system;
uncheckable credit cards; faulty billing systems; delayed tax refunds. No one
knows whether these and other bad things will happen; but no one knows that they
won't, either.
We in the press have not taken this seriously. In my ineptness, I have plenty
of company: the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post
(until recent weeks), Time, Newsweek and Business Week, just to mention a few
news giants. Despite occasional stories, we haven't portrayed this as a truly
threatening development that may not be "fixed" on time. Our failure amplifies
the larger lapses of political leaders.
President Clinton and Vice President Gore project themselves as cyber boosters;
they love photo-ops with students at computers. But they've virtually neglected
the Y2K problem. As a result, many agencies lag badly in converting their
computers. The Federal Aviation Administration's air traffic control system has
250 computer systems, using 50 computer languages with about 23 million lines of
software code. It didn't begin taking the Y2K problem seriously until mid-1997.
By early 1998, less than half the system was converted. The FAA claims it
will be fully ready by mid-1999; the General Accounting Office is skeptical.
The House subcommittee on government management, information and technology,
chaired by Rep. Stephen Horn (R-Calif.), estimates that the federal government
has almost 8,000 "mission critical" computer systems and that only 35 percent
are now prepared for the year 2000. At the present rate, the committee projects
that only 63 percent will make it. Most disturbing is the estimate that only
about a quarter of the Defense Department's 2,900 systems are now ready. Among
private companies, readiness also seems spotty. The head of of General Motors'
information systems recently told Fortune magazine that the company is working
feverishly to rectify "catastrophic problems" at its plants.
Inattention to the Y2K problem may partly reflect the PC myth: the belief that
personal computers and their "servers" -- which can supposedly read all dates --
have assumed most computing tasks. Not so. Larger computers are still used for
(among other things) personnel files, airline reservations, banking, money
transfers, medical records and telephone systems. These are society's sinews. In
the 1960s and 1970s, software programs used only two digits to signify a date --
say 67 for 1967.
Programmers (it's said) never expected the software to survive until 2000. But
much of it did; new computers simply enable it to run much faster.
When the year hits 2000, the date becomes "00." Consider the potential havoc. A
computer subtracts 98 (1998) from 99 (1999) and gets 1. On a loan, that's a
year's worth of interest. Now the computer tries to subtract 99 (1999) from 00
(2000). Perhaps it won't compute -- or perhaps it gets 99 years. On a loan,
that's 99 years of interest. The FAA reports that its radar has a date mechanism
to regulate a critical coolant. If the software isn't fixed, "the cooling system
will not turn on at the correct time . . . and the [radar] could overheat and
shut down."
Potential glitches like this abound. No one knows how many there are. Millions
of lines of software have to be scanned and, if wrong, rewritten. Computers must
then be tested. New software can create new bugs that have to be corrected.
Interconnected systems are especially vulnerable.
Even if one system is okay, it may be harmed by bad data from another. Little
testing has been done. It's complex and time-consuming. Often, systems can be
tested only on weekends when not in use.
For the press, I grasp the difficulties of covering this story. It's mostly
hypothetical. Until we have a corpse, we don't know whether there's been
a murder. Some credit cards expiring in "00" already have been rejected;
still, it won't be until around 2000 that we can truly say whether this is a
big or small problem. Anyone writing about it now is shoved uneasily toward
one of two polar positions: reassuring complacency (fixes will be made); or
hysterical alarmism (the world will collapse). The story is also full of
technical details that bore and baffle most journalists. As for our cyber
buffs, they've generally been too busy surfing the Net and writing about Bill
Gates to notice.
But it could turn out that Y2K matters much more than Microsoft. I lean toward
alarmism simply because all the specialists I contacted last week -- people
actually involved with fixing the computers -- are alarmed. On the record, they
say the problem is serious and the hour is late. Their cheeriest view is that
"no one knows" what will happen. Off the record, they incline toward Doomsday.
One talks of a "Frankenstein"; another confesses that he'll stockpile
prescription drugs and make physical copies of his financial records. Everyone
believes that progress abroad is less than in the United States.
Our vulnerability is plain. In 1990, a few bad lines of bad software caused
AT&T's long-distance system to crash for nine hours; recently, an AT&T
data system crashed, disrupting automatic teller machines, airline reservations
and e-mail. We depend on the smooth flow of information. Interruptions will harm
the economy. If fixed quickly, they will be mere inconveniences. If not, they
will sow uncertainty, destroy confidence and sap society's sense of control. We
can deny the possibilities and pray they don't materialize. Or we can pay
attention and hope to minimize them.
Either way, the year 2000 won't wait.
© Copyright 1998 The Washington Post Company
----------- end Virtual Xerox ------------
Yoo-hoo, denial heads, take this as a virtual swat on your clueless snoot with a
rolled up copy of the Washington Post. -wack- -yip--yip--yip-
Note, Mr. Samuelson words, "... In my ineptness ... I grasp the difficulties of
covering this story ... Our vulnerability is plain. ..." Is that Robert
Samuelson or paul milne wearing a Robert Samuelson mask?
I'm a tuff-guy programmer, my commando-geek-pal here, Shmuel, is a
Tyrannosaurous ReXX of systems guys. We don't think this problem can be solved
in the time left. It baffles me that the clueless, those who have never
sweated over a standalone dump or worked on a *successful* billion dollar
software project (as we have both done, yes it was the same project, no that's
not where we met.) that the clueless would argue that we're overstating the
problem.
Please, if you're in denial, get help; Thorazine I-M, Haldol, or any of the
other anti-psychotics may stop your delusions. Y2K is real. Yes, there are
lots of hype merchants on the loose but at the heart of this, at the core, there
is a problem that we cannot solve in the limited time left.
There is about 10 years of work to do, maybe 15... under deathmarch conditions,
with unlimited overtime, 100/100 salaries, something could be done in 5 years.
100/100 is $100,000/year salaries or $100/hour for those who wish to work as
contractors. A year ago, we were at 50/50.
At this late date, there isn't enough time to remediate the systems.
According to the publication, "The American Banker", in their May 5, 1998 issue,
BankBoston is the target of geek-raids. BB has erected defenses, retention
bonuses, psych warfare... "(our bonuses) would make anyone stay.", said George
S. Best, senior technical recruiter for BB.
But it won't work, you can't pay enough that someone can't just add fifty grand
to the number. What's fifty grand when you're taking about the survival of a
hundred billion dollar enterprise? If 50 programmers makes the difference, just
pay them what it takes and pay whatever it takes to steal them from your
competition.
Don't think about this too long... you'll be out of business in 604 days.
------------- Y2K Haiku Contest -------------
software looks at year
now zero zero, surprise
sends dunning letter
OK, so I'm better at making funny sounds. How about.
geeks enjoy pizza
extra cheese baits coder trap
help-help, let me go
or
donuts, filled donuts
grab them all, take to cube, hide
run X-D-C, eat
I'll host the mess, the best and the bad on a special Y2K Haiku webpage.
------------- New Y2K song --------------
It's Now Or Never (Elvis Presley) It's Now Or Never (a Programmer)
It's now or never It's now or never
Come hold me tight The code's not right
Kiss me, my darling The year 2000
Be mine tonight Is now in sight
Tomorrow will be too late Tomorrow will be too late
It's now or never It's now or never
My love won't wait 'Cause time won't wait
When I first saw you When we first saw it
With your smile so tender Didn't worry 'bout it
My heart was captured The plan seemed okay
My soul surrendered Two digits go 'way
I've spent a lifetime We didn't intend
Waiting for the right time Programs destined to abend
Now that you're near Now we have fear
The time is here at last The time is here at last
It's now or never... It's now or never...
Just like a willow Just like a fellow
We would cry an ocean A lifetime before him
If we lost true love Does what he pleases
and sweet devotion Hopes they ignore him
Your lips exite me Now we must right wrongs
Let your arms invite me Rally behind a fight song
For who knows when For who knows when
We'll meet again this way We'll meet again this way
It's now or never... It's now or never
We'll do it right
The year 2000
Is now in sight
Tomorrow will be too late
It's now or never
'Cause TI-IME won't wait
------------ Y2K Man 5, a story -------------------
Y2K + 4, April 19, afternoon.
He was somewhere between West Virginia and Kentucky. He had an invite to stay
with several groups across the country. As the wind picked up, he pulled the
edges of the tarp around him and snuggled back to wait out the storm.
After the rain, it lasted only a half hour, he cleared a spot for a fire,
took the dry kindling and focused his magnifier on it, it began smoking
immediately, the tricky part was blowing the smoldering twigs into an open
flame. It caught, he added more kindling and as the fire built he started to
prepare his camp site.
------------ CCCC --------------------
Yes, some of you have noticed that I've been a little surly. Well, the
denial is getting to me. But some good news! I got a nice raise in my
long-term contract and a corresponding reduction in hours... so I get to work
less and earn more per hour. This rate is much less than I get on my
consulting trips to NJ and NY but hey, I've been working with them for 10 years
and they gave me a 3 year contract with regular raises. This is important
because it covers my basic expenses through Y2K.
Secret Message >>>----> My NJ client is coming down to DC on Friday, we'll be
working on his Y2K marketing. When I spoke to him on Tuesday, he asked for more
resumes. I haven't given him the full set yet. He has 3-4 that we thought were
a good match for a small NY job. I have a trip to Denver coming up, another
opportunity.
For those of you who have always wanted to break out on your own. This is the
time. If you do, please give your employer the first right of refusal, that's
only fair. If you're earning $75,000 as a salaried programmer, you should be
able to bill in the range of $60-80/hour. We've talked about your expenses,
social security, medical insurance, pension expenses, sick leave, etc.
The hard part of breaking loose is losing that security blanket. Here's a
plan. Find a part-time contract, something you can moon-light on, 15-20
hours/week. Work the part-time job and if they like you and ask for more
hours; that's when you resign from your full-time job. When you resign, offer
to work part-time for them, 20-25 hours/week. If you can work two contracts, 25
hours/week, you have it... but save, save, save.
The other strategy is to contact a job-shop, a rent-a-programmer agency. They
have the lower paying jobs but they have jobs that you can start at tomorrow.
MJL's H1b article had good information on discount brokers. That's another
avenue to explore. Whatever you do, the programmer hiring frenzy will continue
for a few years past Y2K, I'm still guessing 2003, unless of course,
civilization conpletely collapses.
I've been too busy to work on the webpage but I'll get on it tonight. I want
to build some links to the more interesting Y2K links. If you have or know of
an offbeat Y2K page, let me know about it.
cory hamasaki 604 days, 14,504 hours until something strange happens.