Cory Hamasaki's DC Y2K Weather Report V2, # 22
"May 27, 1998 - 583 days to go." WRP78
(c) 1997, 1998 Cory Hamasaki - I grant permission to distribute and
reproduce this newsletter as long as this entire document is reproduced in
its entirety. You may optionally quote an individual article but you should
include this header down to the tearline. I do not grant permission to a
commercial publisher to reprint this in print media.
As seen in
USENET:comp.software.year-2000
http://www.elmbronze.demon.co.uk/year2000/
http://www.kiyoinc.com/HHResCo.html
--------------------tearline -----------------------------
Please fax or email copies of this to your geek pals, especially those
idiots who keep sending you lightbulb, blonde, or Bill Gates jokes,
and urban legends like the Arizona rocket car story.
If you have a Y2K webpage, feel free to host the Weather Reports.
Did you miss Geek Out?
Project Dumbass needs you.
In this issue:
1. Three Futures
2. ABC News Covers Y2K
3. DC Y2K Meeting Report
4. 3330 mod eleven hunt
5. Commercial
6. Y2K Story 6
7. CCCC
------------ Three Futures -------------
Some of the denizens of c.s.y2k are engaged in a odd game of spreading
complacency... a few of them have been pecking at my postings,
exclaiming, a-ha! You haven't given any proof or a URL. I find this odd
because paul (and frank) consider my position to be at the pollyanna end of the
spectrum, they wonder when I'll get smart and leap onto the EOTW bandwagon.
Systems and civilization are more complex than we realize. There are more
alternatives than we can count. The future is made fresh for us every second.
Most of us are prisoners of our assumptions.
Here's what I know with absolute certainty, my assumptions, my prison.
With few exceptions, the systems are not being fixed. Most critical systems
will have failures to include incorrect outputs, complete failure, and loss of
data.
There is not enough time left to fix the systems, no matter how much money is
allocated. There are not enough programmers, not enough specialists, not enough
hours remaining. A single industry leader might be able to fix its essential
core systems by mortgaging its future and outbidding its competitors for IT
specialists.
There are no "packaged solutions" for most of this stuff. Enterprise, mission
critical systems are unique entities.
There is no magic automated solution or silver bullet.
What I don't know and can't predict are the consequences that will flow from
these certainties. I also have a hard time isolating the significant from the
trivial consequences.
For example, heart disease kills more than a half million people a year in the
U.S.; automobile accidents take another forty thousand. If Y2K causes enough
confusion in hospitals, paramedic services, that mis-allocation of medical
resources, boiler explosions, rioting, fires kill another ten percent, does
that matter in the grand scheme of things?
Yes, it matters to you if it's you but against a million a year taken by
heart disease, cancer, diabetes, influenza, accidents, a few tens of thousands
more or less aren't noticed.
We get excited about new, strange, sexy things. That's why there isn't an
influenza quilt and you don't see Liz Taylor wearing a mucus colored ribbon.
What will the Y2K failures be?
I can't tell. Some have been pecking at the TCAM -> Rail -> freight failure
chain. Well, give it up. There're enough dependencies that we will see freight
interruptions. If it's not TCAM, it'll be the embeddeds that monitor and report
on dragging bearings, the protocols over which rail drives its data, the power
that keeps the protocols running. It'll be something.
After all, why would a communications satellite failure ground airplanes? How
can that be? It's soooo confuuuuusing. A satellite on-board system fails, it
fails to roll over to the back up, it tumbles, the signal is lost, weather
reports don't get to the airlines, the airlines cancel flights.
Why don't the big brains peck at this unlikely chain? Where is the back up
satellite? 5 days away. Where is the landline or internet weather report? Why
don't they fly using visual rules and just 'wing-it'? Why? ...because it
doesn't work the way a pecker-head think it does.
So what are the futures? There's a universe of possiblities but it's useful to
think of how you'd prep for three very different disaster scenarios:
A) minimal
services, power, water, failure less than 1 month
limited opportunistic looting
no welfare for 2 months
Dow falls 2,000 points
civil war breaks out in a few unstable countries
B) mid-range
services, power, water, failure less than 6 month
some rioting in large cities
welfare system (including medicare, social security) at 50% capacity
Dow down 4,000 points
war breaks out between third tier counties
C) severe, extended
collapse of infrastructure, services
widespread rioting, looting
government services unavailable for a least a year
Dow down 8,000 points
war between second tier countries.
Preparations vary depending upon the events.
A) minimal
Batteries, enough to run a radio and a flashlight. Move some equity
accounts to GICs, bonds, or CDs. keep a month's worth of canned or dried food on
hand, some cash. Watch the events and help the recovery. Don't be on welfare
or depend on a government check.
B) mid-range
generator and stored fuel, large inventory of food, six months or more,
clorox, move equities to CDs, arrange career so you don't have to travel or
commute to the inner city, plant a garden.
C) severe, extended
alternative power, wind, solar, self sufficient in food production or live in
a food producing area, ham radio, move some savings out of institutions to cash
or precious metal coins, .22 pistol and 500 round brick. Live in a remote
community, know about first aid and home remedies.
Prudent action varies with the type of event.
A) minimal
Watch the action on CNN... when it's on the air. Kick back and relax,
if they're no problems in your city, go back to work after a couple days off.
B) mid-range
Lock down the neighborhood. Check on the retirees across the street. Make
sure that the elderly in your neighborhood get a meal at least once a day, even
if it's just a dish of stew and some crackers. Boil or chlorinate your water.
Keep watch, work to fix things.
C) severe, extended
Hide out in the boonies. Keep a low profile. If you haven't prepared a
bail-out site, don't panic. Even in Bosnia, the sub-sahara, people survive.
Given the choice of being in a city under siege, dodging sniper fire to get
water and hiding out at my pal's farm, I know where I'd rather be. We have a
small orchard on the farm now, in two years, it'll be bearing fruit, pears,
peaches, necterines. Small actions now make a big difference in the
future.
What exactly will fail? How bad will it be?
Don't know. Lots of things are vulnerable.
Is C) the worse case?
No, but if it takes more than complete self sufficiency in a remote agricultural
community, we're in big trouble. Suppose you have a 12x12 one room shack in
a farming community. You have a few acres, a half acre garden, a 500 watt
windpower system, 400 silver dollars buried in the back yard, a fine
Smith & Wesson stainless steel .22 wheelgun, some books on home remedies, a
well, and good neighbors. You've been spending your weekends prepping the
place, you have a wood stove and your lot is partially wooded.
If you can't live with these minimal resources, more won't help. Do you need an
H&K91 with Leitz scope, more than a 12x12 shack, what will you buy with 4,000
silver dollars?
What are the odds of A), B), C) or ???? I don't know. I'm guessing that C) has a
low probability... maybe 1-10%. ...but before you heave a sigh of relief and go
back to watching tractor pulls on cable, consider that the odds are relatively
low that you will be in a major, life-taking automobile accident in your
lifetime, it's about once in a thousand years. Then why do you wear your
seatbelt and purchase life and accident insurance? It's because the once in
a thousand years event, inverted for the 20 people in your close circle is a
once in 50 years happening. For your extended community, friends of friends,
co-workers, etc. It's a sure thing, a once a year to once a decade event.
Lookit, Princess Di, Grace Kelly, Jayne Mansfield, blonds have it tough. ...the
bustin' glass, the screeching tires, the tearing pulmonary arteries... Is Y2K
gonna kill a whole bunch of people? It's a sure thing. Will it kill you?
Depends. Yeah, we have a few butt-heads with smart-keyboards in c.s.y2k, but
they're playing the typical USENET troll game, asking for proof, pecking away.
This thing, whatever it is, is gonna happen.
------------- ABC News covers Y2K --------------
Peter Jennings had 5 minutes with Gary North and Ed Yourdon. Gary is an
older fellow who wore a banker's suit while demonstrating his natural gas well.
They filmed Ed at his place in New Mexico. Ed please, watch your diet, you're
going for the "Frank/cory, I never met a donut I didn't like" look.
The story was about people who are running away from civilization because of
Y2K, it didn't dwell on the technology. It did mention that an analysis of
corporate reports implied that corporations are late (surprise) and unlikely to
get the work done (surprise again).
------------- DC Y2K meeting report ------------------
This is the official report from Bruce, <my odd grunts and snorts>
Last night was our largest meeting ever; total attendance was probably
around 320-340 people, with people having to stand in spite of using the
smaller chairs _and_ dragging in some of the old ones to line along one
wall. Y2K testing and certification was obviously a hot topic for many of
our members.
<DD gave me a box of military fire starter and we chatted about the merits of
C4. Greg had pictures from his Geekout adventure including his combloc post-ban
AK47 style weapon. Greg, get something good, like a fine domestic assault
rifle made by Colt Industries. Don't buy that commie stuff.>
Three announcements were made. First, today (May 20th) is Helen Drew's
birthday (Helen is Vice-Chair of the WDCY2K and the one who makes sure
that the facilities and the great food are in place; congrats can be sent
to info@wdcy2k.org).
<dang, I got there too late to really chow down. Only got a couple pieces of
chicken, 5 dimsum, a couple plates of veggies, some bread and cheese, a Pepsi.
As I shoved my way to the food, I could overhear people ... grumble.. mumble..
milne.. idiot management.. five thousand gallons of water.. congress.. >
Second, the WDCY2K now has its own domain (wdyc2k.org), and the web site
is moving to www.wdcy2k.org. The web site will continue to be mirrored at
www.bfwa.com/bwebster/y2k for a few months, but please update any links
that you might have to the new URL (http://www.wdcy2k.org).
Third, we've only receive about 150 responses to the survey update so
far--out of over 1000 on the WDCY2K notification list--so we please ask
the rest of you to please take time to respond.
We had four excellent presentations last night:
* Larry Summers (BDM International) detailed the Y2K testing/certification
approach he has taken with a major New York bank; <hey b.lynch>
* Tracy Bair (SAIC) talked about the challenges and problems within the
Federal Gov't and commercial firms on Y2K testing/certification; <This guy was
funny, "Great news, we're 40% done... ...the carpool permit database is Y2K
compliant." Lots of one liners about how the news gets better as it goes up the
organization.>
* Annie Anguah-Dei (EDS) laid out how to set up and run a Y2K testing
program for commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) software;
* Linda Vance (Fannie Mae) spoke in detail about Fannie Mae's approach to
Y2K testing and ceritifcation, including setting up a separate test
facility and grouping related applications into collections to be tested
together.
I have asked for soft copies of each presentation and will post them at
the WDCY2K web site as they are received. Thanks again to all our
speakers for their time and effort, and our thanks to all of you, who have
helped to make this group significant. ..bruce..
Bruce F. Webster, CTO, Object Systems Group
Chair, Washington DC Year 2000 Group
email: bruce_webster@fanniemae.com
voice: 202.752.3979
pager: 800.516.3358
web: http://www.wdcy2k.org/
<No shockers during the formal presentation but there was lots of info
exchanged after the meeting. The sense of the crowd was more negative than
before. >
------------ 3330 mod eleven hunt ------------
We're still looking for a 3330 mod eleven. Either time on a running system to
dump a pack to tape or the hardware. This is one of those impossible problems
that I solve for clients. I've been looking for a couple weeks. I have some
good leads but no firm word on a running system.
------------ Commercials ---------------------
If you have a Y2K project in crisis or if you need an outside opinion, drop me
an email. My rates are very affordable through the end of this year. If you
want to find out what's really going on, I can do a 1 week project investigation
that will expose issues, risks, and will include recommendations to bring your
work back on track. ...and my emphasis is in bringing the project back on
track.
Before your company brings in a new mainframe, call my friend Jane at
(201) 653-5776. Jane will set you up with a solution that will save you money
by restructuring and renegotiating your software leases.
------------ Y2K Man 6, a story -------------------
Y2K + 4, April 19, afternoon.
He had small sack of edibles that he had gathered during the day, no fruit, it
was too early in the year but he had some tree fungus, shoots, and greens that
he tossed in a pot with a piece of deer jerky. 20 minutes later, the mulligan
stew was ready.
------------ CCCC ----------------------------
Check out http://www.ntplx.net/~rgearity any evening, 8-10PM EST. Lots of
hot Y2K talk, if you're lucky, Greg will show you his etchings.
The survival food experiment has been running since April 3, 1998 when I bought
20 lbs of rice for $7.99. It looks like I've eaten about 15 lbs of it in eight
weeks. The things I do for the readers of the DCWRPs. I'm guessing that 10
lbs/month is plenty per adult, that's $4.00/month for basic (empty, starchy)
calories. Adding oils, beans, assorted beasties and things scrounged from a
yard, you can set aside a year's worth of food for less than a hundred dollars.
I'll rotate the rice and bean supply. Next time I get over to Falls
Church, I'll get 40 lbs of rice at Lucky World, when I get through half of that,
I'll buy another 40 lbs and over the next year build up to a year's inventory.
Same with the beans, it'll be just an extra 10 dollars/week. Sure I could just
get 400 lbs now but in 18 months, I'll have 200 lbs of 18 month old rice.
Since the risk increases as we count down to Y2K, I'll be gradually increasing
my preparations to compensate for the risk.
I got my ham station on 2 meter FM this week... AH6GI can bring up most of the
DC area repeaters using a 5/8's magmount. The next steps are to find some
nicad or metal hydride inserts for the ICOM battery pack, put the Cushcraft two
meter yagi up, the Ringo Ranger, the Hygain tribander, tune up the ICOM HF
multimode rig, lots of work but almost no cost. Maybe a hundred dollars for
coax and some mounting brackets. The rigs run on 117 VAC or 12 VDC so if the
power goes out, a car battery can keep the station on the air.
An amp at 12VDC from a solar array to a car or marine battery would let AH6GI
put a 100 watt SSB (voice) signal on 20 meters for several hours/day, figuring a
15 amp peak draw or 5 amp average during transmit and 15 minutes of talking
per hour.
I wasn't able to bring up 70/10 which Frank can hit from his farm but maybe with
the Cushcraft.
Good news from DC, Mayor-for-Life Barry will not run for re-election. After
ruining and looting the city for decades except when he was in jail or in a
crack fog, he's leaving public office. The local papers have started pinging on
the city for Y2K compliance. Of course they're not going to finish but hey,
it's DC, it doesn't matter. City services broke down years ago. Pieces of
bridges fall on parked cars, there are moon crater-size potholes in the roads,
the refridgeration at the city morgue failed and family members had to identify
putrifying corpses... ...say, that does look something like uncle Bob but his
ears and nose have rotted off.
Then there was that shameful episode when the city didn't have money to do a DNA
test on some body parts, the sobbing family went on TV to beg for the test so
they could bring what was left of mom home for a decent burial before Christmas.
The execution-style murders of the young workers at the Georgetown Starbucks is
still unsolved; none of the serial rapists or murderers have been brought to
justice, and whatever the city is doing with I295, it's still torn up and should
be avoided.
All you code-crankers, geeks, Y2K testers out there, redouble your efforts to
fix the systems or your city will go the way of DC. This is what happens when
organizations break down, utilities fail, maintenance doesn't get done.
As ever, I remain hopeful that we can fix enough of the systems to prevent a
complete collapse. It will take brave people to define the minimal services
that IT will provide, payroll, billing, ordering. Tuff code-heads to drive the
fixes into production, make it so, make it so.
cory hamasaki 583 days until DC comes for YOU.