WRP79

Cory Hamasaki's DC Y2K Weather Report V2, # 23
"May 31, 1998 - 579 days to go." WRP79

(c) 1997, 1998 Cory Hamasaki - I grant permission to distribute and
reproduce this newsletter as long as this entire document is reproduced in
its entirety. You may optionally quote an individual article but you should
include this header down to the tearline. I do not grant permission to a
commercial publisher to reprint this in print media.

As seen in
USENET:comp.software.year-2000
http://www.elmbronze.demon.co.uk/year2000/
http://www.kiyoinc.com/HHResCo.html

--------------------tearline -----------------------------
Please fax or email copies of this to your geek pals, especially those
idiots who keep sending you lightbulb, blonde, or Bill Gates jokes,
and urban legends like the Arizona rocket car story.

If you have a Y2K webpage, feel free to host the Weather Reports.

Did you miss Geek Out?
Project Dumbass needs you.

In this issue:

1. Triage (reprint)
2. Signs to Watch for.
3. http://www.ship2000.com
4. Real Retention Bonus Program
5. DC Y2K on TV this Tueday (June 2, 1998)
6. CCCC <null set>

------------- Triage ----------------
<Responding to Scott Secor on Triage>

Anyway, the problem isn't just the selection of a design and printing of coupons
and script, sure, that can take 3-6 months. Someone has to decide on a policy,
get it approved, disseminated to the public, who gets the coupons, under what
circumstances, what happens if they're stolen? Think people, you have 82 days
to realize that the century is ending and you gotta get ready.

A year ago, I saw an article about a company whose CIO woke up to Y2K. The
fellow claimed that he had 'solved' their Y2K problem... his solution, the
maintenance teams would find and fix the software. Oh-kaaaaa. Talking about
the problem is not solving it. Deciding to solve it isn't solving it. The only
think that counts is running code.

We need to start on triage. Identify the 10-20 percent of the absolutely
necessary activities and fix the systems that perform those activities. Make
sure they run, cut corners (descope) if necessary. Design and build backups and
bypasses now rather than at 2:00 AM. Have lots of DASD and slots in the SILO,
extra MIPS because we'll be fixing programs and files while the production
window is closing.

Do you have an UPS? What about a 50KW diesel? How much fuel do you have on
hand? Sure, a CMOS box draws a lot less power than a 3090 Six Hundred
Enterprise but you'll still need lots of conditioned three phase to run
production. Here's a tip, one of the DC Y2K attendees, a multi-national corp,
is stockpiling diesel for the backup power to run their datacenters...
hoarding... just like a survivalist nut-case.

Do you have a war-room? One of my clients does, an area with terminals,
manuals, a meeting room, a refridgerator, microwave, etc. They didn't build it
for Y2K but to address general crisis situations. It will be useful for Y2K as
a central place where work and resources can be mustered.

Do you have credit lines and purchasing agreements in place now. A friend's
employer doesn't. I had lunch with him and another geek and together they put
over 25 thousand dollars on their personal credit cards last week. They need
stuff for an emergency project and can't wait for the P.O. to make it
through purchasing. They're deploying systems and need servers and routers.
They were griping about poor planning, cursing out the management chain. Make
it so, make it so.

Fix this stuff now, put corporate credit cards in the hands of the crash teams
or adios baby, it's too late, you had your chance, see you around clown.

What about specialists and emergency back up personnel. Between now and Y2K,
more than one company will see all their geeks get up and walk out the door...
hey where do you think you're going? -silence- they don't say a word. What's
your contingency for that? Call IBM Global Services? You got a half million
dollars per person in your budget?

What do you do if (no, make it when) the geeks take pity on you, instead of
just walking out, they say, we've been thinking, we need an extra hundred grand
each, now, today. Can you make that happen? No? Get someone who can or you're
outa business. Useless, childlike management, little kids dressed up in their
parent's clothes, pretending to do grownup work.

Suppose your system prints checks or food coupon vouchers and the pickup point
is across town but a riot is going on and the regular delivery service is afraid
to drive into the riot, what do you do?

Suppose half your staff calls in 'afraid to come to work', what do you do? Are
you thinking the unthinkable while you still have time?

82 days to wake up, wake up people, it's not business as usual, get outside the
box and have your running shoes on... you're gonna run like you've never run
before.

This isn't about remediation, that was 1996 and 1997. This isn't about orderly
triage, that was early 1998. This is about shifting to crisis mode, goin' milne
on a corporate scale.

ABANDON SHIP, a-oooo-ga, a-OOOOO-ga, shields down, bypassing the anti-matter
reactors, one photon torpedo left; it's the 9th round and Mr. T has been
hammering Rocky, -pow- -biff-, -ta-t-t-t-taaaa t-t-t-t-taaa doo-DOOOOO, one
armed pushups, get up and jump around Rocky.

------------------ Triage --------------------
"Signs to watch for."

Rudely continuing to bait Don Scott.

Hah! Got a strike, now to set the hook....

He's jumping, fighting but I have a 200 lb test line. ...let it play out, reel
him in... we'll tire him out yet. ... ready the gaff.

>
> Cory clarified his position last week when he allowed that he is now
> discussing with friends how things will be much worse than Paul Milne
> predicts. His forecasts will now have to be taken with a heap of
> salt.

Yes, 100 lbs of iodized salt... useful for preserving meat, brine pickling
fruits and vegetables. All survivalist nut-cases should have a big bag of salt
in their stash.

Clarified??? I had an open mind and listened to people at the DCY2K, several of
them said that they were concerned that things would get so bad that even
paul milne would be overrun. One person I know by name, the others I don't.

It's interesting that while grabbing for dim sum and spicy chicken wings (DD,
you wimp, they weren't that hot.), you can overhear people discussing the Y2K
collapse in terms of +/- milne... or "what makes paul milne think he can
survive Y2K in the U.S., I'm moving to New Zealand."

Talk about a dash of cold water in the face.

But no, they're not 'friends'. The last DC Y2K had 300+ attendees.

Lookit, don, the sun is shining, I have money in my pocket, a contract for
the next year, and (groan) 5 lbs of rice in a metal can. Just because some
software is going to break, how bad could it be? ..and do you have a report
from AAR or RAILINC for us.

Here, I'll forecast the forecasts for you, don't tell anyone, we want it to be a
surprise. Shhhhh.

At 500 days, we should see crazed, hiring panics, COBOL applications programmers
at $150K/year W2 salary. If we don't, that means that the triage coding hasn't
started and the triage and bypass systems will not be ready. It means that
industry and the government still hasn't taken things seriously. At that time,
I will redouble the supplies at the farm. We have a second fuel tank, it'll
take a day or two to prep it and install it. I picked up some information on
solar and battery banks. The tree planting is done.

At 365 days, we should see most companies and the federal government announcing
that they have completed all their code changes and some of their testing.
We'll see Y2K testers earning $125/hour. If we don't, the plan is to stock up
on diesel, install a wood stove in the shed.

At 180 days, we should see regular statements, verifiable by independent audit
firms that banks, utilities, telcos, manufacturing, distribution, etc. are 100%
compliant, that unit testing is complete. Alternately, the government and
suppliers should be publicizing the availability of a years worth of food and
fuel. Identifying the distribution points for your neighborhood. If we don't
see this, we'll start excavation of a bunker .

At 90 days, there should be significant celebrations as the first of the
interconnection tests are completed. The contingency people will be building
warehouses in all cities, holding drills. You will have your dated Y2K food
coupon book and FEMA pamphlet on water treatment. If not, I'll be moving my
personal belongings to the farm.

At 30 days, there should be regular reports on completed full live systems
tests, EDI, contingencies, you should see community warehouses with Government
Y2K Success Center signs. If you don't see this, it's time to move to the farm,
fire up the frontloader, and build a mound across the access road.

At anytime, if rioting or civil war breaks out or Canada invades to loot and
pillage Wisconsin, I'm declaring "30 days" and heading for the farm.

I'm not predicting what will happen, just stipulating how I'd respond to
the situation.

But hey, what do I know... Please, call me clueless.

------------- www.ship2000.com -----

Who loses big-time when GPS fails, computer controls get more than a little
funny, and the satellite radio and weather systems go bye-bye. No, not you and
me, we only suffer the secondary consequences, go hungry, see prices go up.

The big losers are the 'names' who commit every penny of their personal fortunes
to underwriting shipping insurance. Hey you, you're wiped out, open your mouth,
any gold teeth in there?

So who's gathering information on commercial shipping Y2K compliance? Who's
sounding the alarm?
----------- Virtual Cache from www.ship2000.com ----------
Lloyd's Register Articles
Year2000 Compliance - General Advice

As the world's premier classification society, LR has a responsibility to its
clients to uphold its primary objective, namely "to secure for the benefit of
the community high standards of design, manufacture, construction, maintenance,
operation and performance, for the purpose of enhancing the safety of life and
property both at sea and on land". We therefore offer the following advice to
alert our clients to the problem associated with computer systems and Year 2000
Compliance.

The problem

The problem is that some computers in use today utilise software modules that
were developed with a date field of just two digits, for example 97 representing
1997. The two 'century' digits are normally assumed, so, on the stroke of
midnight at the turn of the millennium, dates may assume 1900 instead of
advancing to 2000. Another possibility is that the date will revert back a few
decades to, say 1980, when the code was originally written. Some systems with a
4-digit year capability may have been provided with 2-digit data and therefore
still be non-compliant. At present no one knows exactly how individual systems
will react.

Unfortunately it may not be just the millennium 'roll-over' that causes a
problem. When some database systems read 9 September 1999 this may be
interpreted as zero or infinity (because 9999 has been used to mean 'end of
file'). It should also be noted that the year 2000 is a leap year
and 29 February 2000 may therefore not be recognised as a valid date.

It stressed that this problem is not caused by a computer virus.

The scale of the problem

Systems that may be affected include a wide range of critical applications such
as navigation, communications, strength and stability calculations, engine
monitoring and control, and fire detection.

Why should you be concerned ?

A major concern relates to safety-critical systems, that is applications that
protect people from physical hazard. Some systems may revert to a "fail safe"
mode in the event of any malfunction, while others may not. The failure mode is
not predictable if the system response to the millennium roll-over is not known.

Similarly, systems that rely on archived data such as data loggers used in
predictive maintenance schemes and date-stamped alarm systems may lose or
overwrite information or cease to function if a control system reacts to all
erroneous date criteria.

Problems may manifest themselves before, during, and after the roll-over date.

What is Lloyd's Register doing?

In recognition of the risk to its own operations, LR has established a Year
2000 Compliance Programme to address the compliance of systems used or developed
by LR.

A comprehensive inventory of business and embedded systems, which may be
affected by the year 2000 issue, has been prepared. The business risk and impact
of non-compliance have been analysed, so that work on the most critical systems
can be prioritised and progressed. Systems are being reviewed against defined
requirements based on DISC PD2000-1 (see below), and remedial work is being
identified, planned and implemented in a timely manner.

LR has also set up a Year 2000 Technical Working Group to consider the impact
of the Millennium problem on programmable electronic equipment used by LR's
clients. In response to enquiries LR has produced a statement addressing the
position on LR's products and services with regard to Year 2000 compliance, a
copy of which is attached to this letter.

For the avoidance of doubt, you should note carefully that, unless LR agrees
expressly to perform some form of specific Year 2000 compliance check as part of
a particular job, the scope of any service provided by LR does not and will not
include specific checks to establish whether any computer software or hardware
is capable of handling date changes without loss of performance or
functionality. Responsibility for ensuring that any computer software and
hardware is capable of handling date changes without loss of performance or
functionality lies solely with the supplier or client.

What should you do?

An audit and analysis programme should be initiated, along with the suppliers
of your systems, to establish to what extent you may be affected by the
Millennium problem.

It is appreciated that some clients are already aware of this problem and may
have specific action well under way. The purpose of this letter is to ensure
that all LR's clients have at least a basic awareness of the issues involved.

Some guidelines that you may find helpful:

In the UK, a useful reference is a document produced by the UK British
Standards Institution entitled DISC PD 2000-1 A Definition of Year 2000
Conformity Requirements, which details the requirements that must be satisfied
by equipment and products which use dates and times.

The British Computer Society Guidelines also contain information on helpful
Internet web sites and consultancy firms. The Institution of Electrical
Engineers has recently published guidance notes on how to effect inventories and
audits, etc.

Several tasks which may help to manage the situation are: Compiling an inventory
of all systems, including commercial off-the-shelf systems and software (COTS);
carrying out business risk and impact analyses of all identified systems;
compiling a list of Year 2000 compliant companies, noting their name, product,
registration number, configuration details for future legal or contractual
purposes; writing and implement procedures for all staff undertaking remedial
work.

Further information may be obtained from a joint web site being set up by LR
and the UK P&I clubs under the heading 'SHIP 2000'. Details of the launch date
will be given on LR's web site: www.lr.org and in the technical press. The US
Coast Guard are also offering to exchange information via their web site at
http://www. uscg.mil/hq/g-m/nmc/y2k.htm

Caution

Do not accept statements that 'our system is 2000 compliant' at face value.
Your plan of action if not already under way, should be instigated as soon as
possible ..........
THIS IS ONE DEADLINE THAT CANNOT BE POSTPONED !!!!!

There are fewer than 700 days to the deadline for Year 2000 compliance.

If you require further advice or information, please contact :

Alan Lough,
LR co-ordinator 'Year 2000' Technical Working Group,
Control Engineering Department,
Lloyd's Register,
Lloyd's Register House,
29 Wellesley Road,
Croydon, CR0 2AJ.
Tel: +44 181 681 4781

E-mail: Alan.lough@lr.org
Fax: +44 181 681 4870

J.W.Hickman
Group Corporate Secretary
Lloyd's Register of Shipping

Disclaimer

This site has been constructed by Lloyds Register, Thomas Miller & Co. Ltd and
is supported by The UK P&I Club, The Through Transport Club, BIMCO and the ICS
(all to be known as the "Organisations").

Neither the Organisations nor any of their officers, employees, managers or
agents shall be responsible or liable in negligence or otherwise howsoever in
respect of any inaccuracy or omission herein, or for any malfunction of the
site.

Without derogating from the generality of the foregoing neither the
Organisations nor any of their officers, employees, managers or agents shall be
liable for any indirect or consequential loss caused by or arising from any
information advice or inaccuracy or omission herein or from or any malfunction
of the site.

Explore the site. It's too bad that the airlines, FAA, railroads, power
industry aren't as concerned as Lloyds of London. But hey, *they* assume the
risk.

...and please, denial-heads, just pop on over to Lloyds and tell them to stop
hyping the problem, no ships will sink.... show them how smart you are.

------------ Retention Bonus Program ----------

Here's the deal, I know some geeks who work for a national technology company,
no, it's not IBM or Xerox, but it is a household name. The company has
excellent overall benefits, stock options, 401(k), insurance, etc. I can't name
the company.

They have been losing software engineers for the last year. The loss increased
a few months ago, a competitor began Geek-Raids. In response, they provided a
series of 'within the system' responses. One of the geeks received a surprise
62K to 70K raise and a few other perqs, new laptop, couple hundred dollar
'award'. Yeah, I know a couple hundred dollar award is lame, but hey, 'within
the system.'

Every time I talk to them, I'd hear new stories of raids, their personnel
shortage, and we'd discuss Y2K and the thousands of jobs in the Washington Post.

Last week they took some serious action. The geek who earns 70K will receive a
90 thousand dollar retention bonus paid in three installments as follows:

25,000 Summer 1998 aka Y2K minus 540
29,000 Summer 1999 aka Y2K minus 180
36,000 Summer 2000 aka Y2K plus 180

His pal who earns 85K will receive 130 thousand dollars as follows:

36,000 Summer 1998 aka Y2K minus 540
42,000 Summer 1999 aka Y2K minus 180
52,000 Summer 2000 aka Y2K plus 180

These are *not* advertised as Y2K related. The story is that the company is
providing retention incentives to employees with critical technical skills.

I believe that this is in line with the retention bonus amounts at BankAmerica,
those were on the order of a hundred million dollars for perhaps a thousand,
hardworking, deserving geeks, an average of about a hundred thousand dollars.

The numbers at this unnamed DC area technology firm are slightly higher but
they've suffered incredible losses. Surprisingly, they are not raid-proof.
The word on the street is that several geeks are considering taking the first
payout and seeing is someone will 'buy' their option.

How many of you geeks are receiving your fair share? Note, the 25K bonus takes
Geek A to a $95K annual salary. Geek B, who is more senior, is getting 121K.
This is about right for their skills.

----------- DC Y2K on TV --------------

Yes, fame comes to DC Y2K as CBNnews, the news service of the Christian
Broadcasting Network visits DC Y2K at Fannie Mae to ask, What the h*ll
is going on here?

Find out this week... Tuesday, on the 700 club. In Washington DC, it'll be on
at 9:00AM on Channel 20. It's also carried by the Family Network. Who knows
who you'll see on the hidden cam. Maybe DD double buffering the squid rings or
Greg, using chained scheduling to ensure a continuous flow of steak and
chicken. DD is the Jason Priestly look-alike; you'll know Greg... he's
the one with the 30 round mags taped 'jungle-style' to his combloc
assault rifle, the geek in the commo three piece suit.

DC Y2K regulars will want to make the June meeting, when Big-Ed Yardeni comes to
scare the bejeesus out of the gang. This one'll be a sellout so if you're not
already holding tickets, you're outa luck.... I might be scalping them out on
Wisconsin Ave... Tickets... I got tickets, three hundred dollars paper or an
American ten dollar gold piece.

...seriously, <what, me serious?> I'm sending email to various news services
about this one. You should do that too. Let's see if we can get someone to
carry it live... It's certainly more interesting than, say, truck racing or
CSPAN...

------------ CCCC ------------------

Sorry, no closing clueless commments this week. It's not that I've run out of
them, I don't have the time. Too much high paying work to do. Too many
companies to save, not enough geeks.

cory hamasaki 579 days left.