Cory Hamasaki's DC Y2K Weather Report V2, # 27
"July 1, 1998 - 548 days to go." WRP83
(c) 1997, 1998 Cory Hamasaki - I grant permission to distribute and
reproduce this newsletter as long as this entire document is reproduced in
its entirety. You may optionally quote an individual article but you should
include this header down to the tearline. I do not grant permission to a
commercial publisher to reprint this in print media.
As seen in
USENET:comp.software.year-2000
http://www.elmbronze.demon.co.uk/year2000/
http://www.kiyoinc.com/HHResCo.html
Don't forget, the Y2K chat-line: http://www.ntplx.net/~rgearity
any evening, 8-10PM EST.
--------------------tearline -----------------------------
Please fax or email copies of this to your geek pals, especially those
idiots who keep sending you lightbulb, blonde, or Bill Gates jokes,
and urban legends like the Arizona rocket car story.
If you have a Y2K webpage, feel free to host the Weather Reports.
Did you miss Geek Out?
Project Dumbass needs you.
In this issue:
1. DC Jobs
2. Kicks
3. How to tell them
4. How bad will it be
5. DC Crime
6. Rail Again
7. CCCC
------------- DC Jobs -----------------
Here's the mystery, this is the middle of the summer job doldrums but
the Washington Post (Sunday June 28, 1998) just ran 15+ pages of "geek
wanted" job ads. Check out their search engine at
http://www.washingtonpost.com
Here are a few of the more interesting ones:
COBOL, JCL, IMS, DB2, also looking for Pee Cee Wee Nee's, Nice big ad,
Datanonics, email: resumes@dnnj.addmail.com
MVS COBOL CICS'er, also looking for testers w/ MVS, Orkland, email:
resumes@orkland.com
COBOL DB2 MVS, for a european firm, the Guild,
email:kedens@guildcorp.com
Mainframers W2/1099, $60K-120K email: hr@y2k-solutions.com
Y2K project manager, Acuity Tech, email: mmcmillan@acuitytech.com
Mainframe COBOL, Hagerstown, Computer Aid, email:
wendy_nolan@compaid.com
Y2K COBOL, Y2K Testers, ATR (a jobshop), fax: (703) 917-1616
MVS DFSMS administration (doesn't mention Y2K but DASD is a bid deal in
Time Machine operations), MVS COBOL too, AMS (Amos), email:
staci_boycan@mail.amsinc.com
COBOL, OS/390, Y2K IV&V, PG County and OAO, email: careers@oao.com
COBOL, Syncsort (DD?), OS/390, VTAM, the Federal Reserve Board,
email: clarkb@frb.gov
Y2K project managers and project leaders, Cendant, email:
marylou.wolford@phh.com
Now here are the odd ones....
Something calling itself the Michigan Jobs Commission is recruiting for
the Great Lakes, email schulzb@mesc.state.mi.us Who are they and why
are they here?
Lee Thomas, a recruiter, is looking for Y2Kers for the spooks,
email: leetom@erols.com
And the DC Y2K Weather Report Pick of the week:
"A double
BONU$
is a good $IGN"
<this is half the ad, the letters are 3/4 inch tall.>
"Money talks, size matters" ... "Cash bonus now + more
in the year 2000" ... "get one signing bonus now, and another in the
Year 2000." Assembler, COBOL, CICS, DB2, VSAM... you know the drill,
who is it? First Maryland Bankcorp.
It's a BANK! Oh, wait, aren't banks supposed to have things under
control? Isn't Y2K just hype? Didn't they start 28 years ago when 30
year mortgages began to bump up against the century line? Where're the
denial-heads with the big brains who figured this all out? Someone
here is soooo confused....
When a bank says, "Money talks" and spells Bonu$ and $ign with a $.
let's listen. OK? When their ad mentions the Year 2000 twice, maybe,
this is what we call a clue.
First Maryland is at fax: (410) 347-6989 or email:
jobapplications@firstMD.com
------------ Kicks my behind ---------
Friday, June 26, 1998, 1:00 PM, cory and Mike are on their after lunch
Y2K conditioning walk. Hey, there's a 7-11, let's see what they have...
OK, I just ate but it was only a $2.75 salad and I'm hungry.
There's Steve. Steve is a fifty+ geek, looks a little like Tom Sellec,
wavy hair, easy going. Yo Steve, what's shakin'?
Steve works for an outfit that I did some work for about 8 years ago. A
sister company of one of my clients. Mike and I know a lot of the
players there.
Without prompting, Steve starts in... this project is late, that one is
a mess, and you know what else, they've scheduled a Y2K production test
this September. They're going to use one of the machines, not a Time
Machine, but they're taking down a production node and are rolling the
clock forward ....
cory: ...uh...
Steve: They told me to use a special Y2K dsname qualifier...
cory: ...ah... not connected to the production...
Steve: Yes, connected, sharing DASD, sharing catalogs,
cory: ...nooooo...
Steve: I have to set up special jobstreams with all new dsnames...
cory: ...connected...
Steve: There's still production running with Kicks Macro code...
cory: ...macro...
Steve: Stuffs been running for 15 years. The databases are all two
digit years, they told me not to work on it. They think the PeeCee
development teams will help with this. Those guys don't want to have
anything to do with the mainframes. Who's going to do it?
Steve, who is usually a calm, Andy of Mayberry kind-a guy,
was disturbed, frightened, angry. I got my 20 oz bottle of creme soda.
Nothing to worry about, professionals are working on it. This is just
hype. My big brain doesn't see a problem.... or is there a problem?
Get back to the walk.
This September...? Steve works for a major multi-national at their HQ
in the DC area. Come on, they're doomed; the ship is taking water; I
know their CIO, when I see him at the Safeway, he nods and greets me
by name. Should I tell him? What's my role in this? Stay tuned to the
DC Y2K Weather Reports as cory looks for an answer.
------------ How to tell them ---------------
You guys in? OK, but what about your friends, relatives, and
neighbors? They're not in. What do you tell them? What do you want to
tell them?
My opinion, Ed Yourdon made a mistake with his three scenarios. The
3 day scenario isn't worth mentioning; we're all prepared for three days
of no infrastructure.
He doesn't include the complete collapse of civilization, new Dark Ages,
and Second U.S. Civil War, humanity die-off, which I don't believe is a
high probability but several people here are preparing for.
How to tell them.... tell them what you believe, I know that the
software remediation is going poorly, that large enterprise systems will
fail, that there will be disruptions in the production of goods,
services, utilities, transportation, communications, that this is all at
risk and there isn't enough time, money, people, knowledge to fix
things in the time left. This is what I tell them.
Some portion of society will respond poorly to these disruptions, power
outages trigger rioting and looting in some places. Other places, other
segments of society, will respond in a civilized manner.
Tell them that while there is no guarentee that a collapse will occur,
that you have started taking precautions, preparing for the various
outages and that you will help them prepare, if they're interested.
If they're still in denial, let them go. Now that you've alerted them,
they will see Y2K in the news. They will notice how often it comes up,
who's saying what, and at some point, they will decide for themselves
that this is a problem worth considering.
------------- How bad will it be? ---------------
At an Edwards: 4, I'm guessing that it won't be the end of the world;
but... fair warning people, there are lots of possible futures and the
Rawles-milne-ney scenario is not impossible. If it goes Edwards: 5 or
6, 7, 8... the scale is open ended, what are your contingencies?
My ace is helping a pal prep his farm, investing a small amount of time
and money to prepare this lifeboat. If I work a day a month and
contribute some supplies, technology and a little cash, I have a
spot to bail out to and he has a backup.
When the discussions move beyond short term power interruptions,
problems with water supplies, phone failures, and intermittent shortages
of staples, I have a hard time estimating the probabilities and
calculating the impact. My guess, and this is strictly a wild guess, is
the Edwards: 5 scenario, collapse of the government, rioting, looting,
and worse has less that a 5% probability. Of course, if you are in the
usual trouble spots, Miami, LA, DC, NY, the probability is much higher.
-------------- Update on DC crime ----------
Regular readers will recall the shameful incident last December where a
family begged the DC government to run a DNA test on some human remains.
They wanted to bring mom home for burial by Christmas. No money,
the DC government said, but here are some pictures of the Mayor's ride,
a nice Lincoln, a large part of the police budget goes for 'Security'
for the Mayor.
Here's the update, pulled off the Post's server and cached through the
magic of the Internet. Please skip by this one if brutality of the
inner city disturbs you.
------- begin virtual Xerox -------
Family of Slain Woman Finds Answers but Little Peace
By Gabriel Escobar
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, June 26, 1998; Page C01
"Have y'all found Bird?"
The old man stood on the stoop and asked politely, back in October,
when the news at the tidy row house on Quincy Street NW was fresh
and frightening. Jessica Cole was missing and her people, the ones
often strung out on the street, were coming forth, anxious to know and
anxious to help. "Everybody started looking for Bird," said her sister,
Arlene Ford. "People would come up to the door: 'Has she come in?'"
The answer came in stages, torturously slow, and only after the FBI
lab conducted two DNA tests. In the end, it was as horrible as
everyone on the street and in the row house had feared. The
40-year-old mother of two and the mutilated remains found three days
after she vanished last year are, with "tremendous statistical
likelihood," one in the same. One of the most vexing and agonizing
questions posed by the deaths of five other women in the
neighborhood off Georgia Avenue NW seems to have been
answered, to the satisfaction of investigators who now are searching
for the killer or killers.
But for the victim's family, the resolution of this aspect of the case
does not mean closure. What remains of Jessica Cole was transferred
from the trash bag in which she was found to the morgue eight months
ago, and today, even with the crucial identity question answered,
there is still no prospect of a final chapter any time soon.
There is no official cause of death. The torso was sent not to an
undertaker, but to an anthropologist. The family still has no death
certificate, which means that something as simple as canceling her
credit cards is not possible. Her husband, James Cole, 42, wanted to
cremate his wife's remains and spread the ashes in Virginia Beach,
where the couple spent their honeymoon. But police told him his
wife's torso is evidence.
Mutilation crimes are rare and, by definition, unspeakably gruesome.
Police officials who have seen hundreds of homicides do not recall
another in the District. Cole's case stands out not only because of the
degree of the mutilation but also because the family has learned
details that loved ones are normally spared.
Their search has exposed them to shocking revelations, often
provided by investigators who were pressed for information. The
passage of time has brought some news: A neighborhood man was
arrested, charged in two of the deaths and is being investigated in
connection with others. But for the most part, Cole's family has lived
daily with a brutally unexplained death. Her husband has kept a
journal, noting his thoughts and every mundane development and
occasionally addressing his wife.
Jessica Cole was his high school sweetheart, the mother of his two
sons and his partner in a cleaning business. Since she disappeared, the
occasional pointed questions of detectives have convinced him that he
has been on their list of possible suspects, and he understands that this
is a natural part of the investigative process. He has gotten angry only
once, when a detective asked whether his older son, now 23, had
"ever done things to his mother."
"I did not do it, and they have not asked me" outright, James Cole, 42,
said quietly. "I ain't got nothing to hide. If that's going to help keep
them on the case, then that's good."
On the day he was told of the DNA tests, May 27, there is one short
entry in his notebook: "The word has come down. I've been loving
you for always, and for all time. I will be strong for us."
Cole and other relatives have suspected the worst since October, but
the details that have gathered have made matters better and worse.
Cole's dismemberment is extreme -- authorities say she was cut from
about an inch below the navel and from slightly above the sternum.
Metal filings have been recovered, evidence a saw was used. Time
has added other wounds. James Cole knows that there is now little
flesh on the remains, a fact shared by someone who wanted to ease
his anxiety over the delay in getting to bury his wife. "From the way
they're talking, it's nothing but bones," Cole said.
Ford said she pressed for answers from the moment the torso was
found on Oct. 13, three days after Jessica Cole vanished and a month
before police and FBI agents began looking at the set of deaths in the
area. Initial police reports noted that the torso had a surgical scar --
similar to one Jessica had as a result of gallbladder surgery -- and Ford
called the medical examiner's office minutes after she heard the news
on television.
She talked to Detective Jim Trainum, who was assigned to the case
initially. He asked her about her sister's height and weight, the size of
her breasts, the tone of her skin color. Ford mentioned that her sister
had a mole on her arm, and Trainum said they did not have that part of
the body. For the first time, the scope of what may have happened
became clear. "I just couldn't get it out of my mind," Ford said.
Days later, she was working at Providence Hospital, where she is a
medical surgical technician, when Trainum showed up. Of all the
investigators they have dealt with, including FBI agents, Trainum is
the only one who earned the trust and respect of Cole family
members, who said that, in general, their dealings with authorities
have left them frustrated and angry. Trainum was taken off the case
and assigned to investigate the still unsolved triple killing at a
Starbucks coffee shop near Georgetown.
At the hospital that day, Arlene Ford said she pressed Trainum for
details. She knew the body of her baby sister. "Give me pictures.
Give me something. I need something," she told Trainum.
The detective went to his car and retrieved three glossy pictures of the
torso. Arlene looked at them, closely. "Everything was pointing to her
-- her nipples, her little navel protruding outward and what was left of
the surgical scar.
"What was left of her," she said, "looked like her. I said, 'Yes, that's
my sister.' "
The family's ordeal also has been complicated by the investigation
itself. Although family members said Trainum told them that he
suspected a connection with the torso, one police officer from the 4th
District visited them at home on those agonizing first few days and
told them the department was "97 percent certain" it was not Jessica.
Police said in interviews at the time that a report by the medical
examiner found that the remains were those of a Hispanic or
light-skinned black woman in her twenties. Cole was black, of
medium complexion and 40 years old.
Police and the FBI declined to discuss any aspect of the Cole case,
citing an ongoing investigation. Jonathan L. Arden, the District's new
chief medical examiner, said Wednesday that the examiner's initial
finding was "within the realm of possibility." Arden reviewed the case
shortly after his arrival in April, and a month later, the case was listed
for the first time as a homicide due to an undetermined cause.
Although relatives were told about the DNA link almost a month ago,
no official has informed them that the case is now classified as a
homicide.
Arden promised to expedite tests on the remains. "I assure you that
we will not be holding this . . . as some kind of piece of macabre
evidence, to add to the grief of the family," he said.
James Cole and the victim's sisters have been integral to the
investigation, if for no other reason than that Jessica's friends on the
street were initially forthcoming only to them. Ford and another sister,
Marcia Jackson, canvassed the neighborhood. James Cole spent hours
talking to people, and the family now has a clear chronology of her
last hours.
Jessica used drugs on weekends, when her husband said she would
"blow off steam" with her street friends, a large group that had
included the five other women who have been killed since November
1996. She kept this up despite the admonitions of her sisters, who also
knew several of the other victims and recall that Jessica came home
crying when one of them, Emile Dennis, was found dead in August
1997.
On Oct. 10, Jessica left her family's house on Quincy Street at 11 p.m,
riding a mountain bike. "She just turned back, on that bike, and said,
'I'll see y'all later,' " Jackson said. Over the next few hours, friends
and neighbors saw her several times. At one point, she went to
Hunan's on Georgia Avenue, a popular spot for the night crowd
because the fast-food place sells single cigarettes. Sometime
afterward, she called friends on Rock Creek Church Road to say she
was heading over. She never showed up.
Jessica Cole had two years of college and was a certified dental
assistant, although she never worked in that profession. She was
street-smart and, in the words of her husband, could turn into a
"junkyard dog" if you messed with her. "She loved mixing with
people," James Cole said. "Even when she was doing the drug thing,
she would share with everybody."
The family's pursuit for answers has produced nightmares. In one,
Ford saw her sister and her eyes were full of very small yellow beads.
"I walked up, and I hugged her. I was fussin' with her, like my mother
would, get on her for being out on the street. Jessica asked, 'Why did
they do this to me?' And slowly, she walked out the door."
James Cole has one in his book. The day before they learned the
DNA results, he dreamed that he and Jessica were in their old house.
She had been bitten by a spider, and he was holding her. "And then
she expired, right there in my arms."
The family has scheduled a memorial service from 12:30 to 1:30 p.m.
tomorrow at First Baptist Church, 712 Randolph St. NW. There will
be prayers but no body. When FBI officials learned of the service,
they asked James Cole whether he planned to have a guest book. "I
guess they want to check out if there's a possible suspect in the room,"
he said.
¸ Copyright 1998 The Washington Post Company
----------- end Virtual Xerox -----
Yes, 'Bird' was a member of the underclass and a drug user but no one
deserves to have their remains languish unindentified and unclaimed like
that. No family should be treated as they were by a city government in
collapse, the only detective that dealt with them fairly was taken off
the case.
The case is still unsolved; this means that a serial killer, who hacks
and dismembers his prey, is loose somewhere in DC. And where is
'Bird's head? ...in the garbage or on a trophy shelf? How can someone
kill six women in a one small area and not be noticed, seen? Was he
known to them? What's the real story?
Please, visitors, avoid DC. If you must enter the city do so during
daylight. If you are on business, be off the street by nightfall.
The Y2K connection? This is what happens when order breaks down. There
is nothing inherently bad about DC. It's a beautiful city with lots of
businesses, restaurants, museums, and shops. The Federal Era townhouses
on New York Avenue are wonders, works of art.
However, a crack-loving ex-con is the mayor and all the tax money and
subsidies provided by congress have disappeared. The police are
underpaid, their resources have vanished. There's no street lighting in
large parts of the city; the roads have moon crater size potholes, and
the Federal Era townhouses are boarded up. It's a look at one Y2K
future.
---------------- Rail Again ------------------
Here's an article on Rail Freight that Computerworld ran last week.
--- Fair Use Doctrine, Virtual Xerox for discussion ----
Computerworld June 22, 1998
Experts needed for 2000 fixes
Union Pacific Corp. was well into building a new $6 million computerized
railcar for recording maintenance data about its 36,000 miles of track
when a frightening thought stabbed Mike Sundberg.
"I remember worrying, 'Oh my God, we poured all of this money and
resources into this new system. And everything we're doing with planning
and long-range budgeting would be driven by data coming from the car.
What's going to happen if it's not year 2000-compliant?' " recalled
Sundberg, chief engineer of equipment systems at the railroad.
That was five years ago. And as it turned out, the railcar's onboard
computer and sensor systems had some date problems, which Union Pacific
and the car manufacturer later identified and are now fixing.
But Sundberg's stabbing feeling remained. He figured if there were
problems with the test car, there also must be problems with a lot of
other systems. "That was the defining moment for me," he said.
Sundberg's discovery of date problems with the test railcar was "all part
of him doing his job," said Jim Fox, information systems director at the
$9 billion railroad. Yet the discovery is a telling illustration of why
business and operations managers outside of information technology must
be involved in year 2000 projects.
Union Pacific's year 2000 team relies on experts such as Sundberg. Fox
said IT systems for automatic train refueling or weight and motion scales
"are the responsibility of managers who, as part of due diligence, must
check the technology they use in their departments."
Sundberg came up with a plan to ferret out the location and nature of
date problems in the computer systems his group uses for everything from
assembling railcars into trains to operating railroad crossing and
signaling systems.
REPLACEMENT PLAN
Today, Sundberg's plan in engineering includes replacing several older
systems, including Union Pacific's signaling system, with new software.
That is less costly than repairing the original system. "We've
classified all of our computer systems into two classes ¿ critical and
noncritical. The critical systems are those that would affect safety,
such as the signal system and crossing system," he explained.
Noncritical systems, he said, "are those that might give us a little
heartburn, but would not affect either safety or operations."
Other systems deemed critical by the Union Pacific engineering
department's 11-person year 2000 team are being renovated in-house by
information systems staffers and contractors. The team identified four
critical mainframe systems and another 10 client/server systems, all of
which will be completed by this time next year, Sundberg said.
But to meet that deadline, other IT projects in engineering have had to
take a backseat. Among the postponed projects are enhancements to a
predictive modeling system, which would use data retrieved by the new
computerized test car to generate long-range maintenance schedules and
capital improvement budgets.
"When we first started getting into year 2000, we didn't realize it was
going to take nearly all of our resources. But the deeper you get into
it, the more you find," Sundberg said. As for the predictive modeling
systems, "we'll still do that work. We'll just have to do it next year,"
he said.
Rail safety is the No. 1 priority of all railroads, according to
Treadwell Davison, who manages the Association of American Railroads'
year 2000 task force. Because railroads work together on customer
shipments that cross company lines, association members, including Union
Pacific, are sharing their year 2000 research, testing and
recommendations, he said.
¿ Julia King
--------- End Virtual Xerox ------------
Is Rail on track? Don't bet on it. Here're the touchstones...
"...assembling railcars into trains..."
"The team identified four critical mainframe systems and another 10
client/server systems, all of which will be completed by this time next
year"
"...take nearly all of our resources."
"...the deeper you get into it, the more you find..."
Hmmm, let's buy a clue... They're a year away from completion ...
they'll find more to work on... Anyone screaming yet?
What comes by rail? Lots of big heavy stuff. Rail is efficient.
Without rail, costs skyrocket. Same with ships, ships are cheap
economical transporation. Without ships, costs skyrocket...
..say, aren't we supposed to have deflation?
--------------- CCCC --------------
Yes, here I sit, more confused and clueless than ever, gut pressing
against my belt, sweating and wheezing, fat fingers running over the
keys. Mulling over inflation, deflation, serial killers.
Banks are OK but they're screaming for programmers. Rail is fine, no
TCAM problems, but they're putting "nearly all their resources" against
Y2K. They're worried about "...assembling railcars into trains...",
why should they be?
Switchyards, anyone?
Don't listen to milne, ney, gary north. They're just hyping the
problem. Aren't the banks OK, isn't the rail problem just something
that I made up? Yeah, just like I made up Lloyds of London and
ships, the GPS ground segment support issue, SVC-11, tm_year, just like
I'm repeating the PL/I DATE() story from "the Software Archeologist".
I don't make this cr*p up. I meet with experts, attend WDC Y2K, do hard
stuff for a couple select clients, get email from my betters, and run
tests for my clients and on my own systems.
We have the DoD lieing to itself and congress... until their Inspector
General goes on a tear. It gets worse and worse.
..And Awareness? Today, July 1, 1998, Y2K preparation was the cover
story on USA Today. McPaper knows. This is it. Pull up the story...
but the real Y2K story might be on page B1, the SABRE reservation system
had its second blackout in a week.
Last Wednesday it was down for over three hours, yesterday it was down
for over four hours. SABRE is 7x24.... was 7x24. Welcome to Y2K.
Anyone wanna bet they're slamming in Y2K fixes, trying to beat the
clock. Hey, professionals are working on it.
I'm not knocking the hardworking geeks at SABRE. They have an
impossible job. Got it denial-heads, this stuff is hard. The
professionals are stumbling. The clock's running and things are not
going well. What can you do about it?
Well, Art and I are working on a solar article, I'd hoped to get it in
this report... maybe next week. I'm off the rice. Sick of it after
eating 20 lbs in just over two months. I have a flour mill. I ground
some hard red winter wheat and made a loaf of bread. It wasn't bad.
Rice cooking tip from Frank (I do it too.) To minimize the use of fuel,
bring the water and rice to a boil, just get it rolling. Pour the rice
and water into a wide mouth thermos and cap it. An hour later, you'll
have well done rice for only the fuel needed to bring it to a boil. It
self simmers. An added benefit is that you can't forget the rice on the
stove and come back to find flames and black smoke shooting out of the
pot. Who's done that?
Be careful out there.
cory hamasaki 548 days. We must start work on bypasses and
alternative systems within 48 days.