Cory Hamasaki's DC Y2K Weather Report V2, # 28
"July 8, 1998 - 541 days to go." WRP84
(c) 1997, 1998 Cory Hamasaki - I grant permission to distribute and
reproduce this newsletter as long as this entire document is reproduced in
its entirety. You may optionally quote an individual article but you should
include this header down to the tearline. I do not grant permission to a
commercial publisher to reprint this in print media.
As seen in
USENET:comp.software.year-2000
http://www.elmbronze.demon.co.uk/year2000/
http://www.kiyoinc.com/HHResCo.html
Don't forget, the Y2K chat-line: http://www.ntplx.net/~rgearity
any evening, 8-10PM EST.
--------------------tearline -----------------------------
Please fax or email copies of this to your geek pals, especially those
idiots who keep sending you lightbulb, blonde, or Bill Gates jokes,
and urban legends like the Arizona rocket car story.
If you have a Y2K webpage, feel free to host the Weather Reports.
Did you miss Geek Out?
Project Dumbass needs you.
In this issue:
1. How Bad
2. Telcos
3. Risks Digest
4. de Jager's Listserv
5. Where Am I
------------- How Bad -----------------
I'm generally an optimistic person. I tend to think the best of people
and expect the best in most circumstances. C.s.y2k and Y2K in general
has attracted a collection of pessimistic thinkers.
Could they be right, what's the evidence, and if they are correct, how
bad will it be? Who are the players in the, what will happen and how
bad will it be game?
The top tier, the advance guard are the Rawles, milne, ney, garynorth's
of the world. They see things before we do and say things before we are
ready to hear.
The middle tier are the IT and Software Engineering researchers,
Ed Yourdon, the function point guy, what's his name, and industry
analysts such as Lou Maccarcio of Gartner Group. This group looks at
IT as a whole.
And bringing up the bottom are you and I, the IT professional. We can
point to systems that will fail and know of massive IT failures in the
past. We don't have the view of the interconnectiveness of the systems.
We have a limited knowledge of what's happening in shops other than the
one we work in.
I know of a half dozen major systems that are scheduled to fail... this
is not my opinion, I have seen internal documents that discuss these
circumstances. What happens when a multi-billion dollar, multi-national
suffers an IT catastrophic failure?
In normal times, a regulatory agency steps in and arranges their
liquidation and the sale of their assets to a viable competitor.
What happens in 1Q00 when the regulatory agency itself is in chaos?
What happens when the power is off and there's no dialtone?
The difficulty that we have is that these events are unprecidented. We
know that large systems will fail. I expect that even 100% remediated
systems will fail and the failures will continue to worsen through 2000
and 2001 as bad data and hastily patched systems corrupt other systems,
as source versions are regressed and programmers bail, burnt out and
disgusted.
Based on the evidence in the SEC filings, the reports of lack of
progress, the relatively low rates paid to programmers, and several
other indicators, there is no chance of avoiding an IT catastrophy.
At this date, there is still enough time to prepare, to prepare on
several levels.
A large enterprise has enough time to identify and fix 15 percent of
their core systems. I've felt that there was 10 years of work to do.
With a year and a half left, there's enough time to fix the 15% of the
absolutely essential core systems. This may be enough to save the
corporation.
The problem is, in 1996 when there was 4 years to go, we were already
out of time and should have been thinking in terms of contingencies,
last ditch, cost is no issue, efforts. It's now mid 1998 and if
anything, progress is moving backwards and certain large organizations
are fooling themselves.
It is time to begin the "how bad can it get" planning, put the
contingencies into place. On the corporate level, these are liquidation
options, golden parachutes, retention bonuses for the geeks, plans to
sell off all except the most profitable of the core business and just
work on fixing that. If your corporation is not planning for
disaster, they will be a disaster. I have a client that can help
companies plan for survival. Need a reference? Drop me an email.
------- Telcos ---------------------------
The Telco story is getting stranger and stranger. Earlier this year,
c.s.y2k had several heated discussions on Telcos, the threads fizzled
out when Telco experts claimed that the switches had no Y2K
vulnerbility.
Then it became known that a future release of Siemen's switch software,
the 1Q99 Release 16 would contain Y2K support (details unstated). Last
week, an email from Siemen's marketing claimed that, oh, oh, we're
wrong, there will be (was) a 2Q98 Y2K patch to the release 15 switch
software (details also unstated).
Yes, I'm glad that the switch situation is so clear and obviously
solved. No problems there.... even though at the embedded session of
the W DC Y2K users group, a Telco (one of the biggies) said that they
were pressing hard, were worried about switch test beds (they had one
but didn't know what the little guys would be doing because their test
bed was booked up 110%) Yep, the guy running Y2K for a Telco says,
we'll be OK but we're running our switch test bed full tilt-boogie and
marketing from a switch vendor says, patches? We have patches.
Yes, it's yet another Y2K reality disconnect. Maybe we need to have the
DOD's Inspector General look into this one too?
So, the denial-heads are saying, what does it take to convince you Y2K
hysteri-cats? A fair question... This is what it takes. The company,
vendor, industry must come clean and state that they looked at the
problem, dumped files, examined source listings, ran full Time Machine
tests against the critical dates. They must say that after the testing,
they either didn't find a problem or they did find Y2K problems. If
they did find a problem, they should say how they solved it, how they
verified the fixes and when it went to production.
They can state this in relatively simple terms, naming the systems, the
hardware, software, source languages, number of source lines or bytes as
well as the time(total as well as start and end dates), man power and
dollars expended. If they do this, I will believe that they have
addressed the problem. Until they do this, they are fooling no one but
the fools.
If they wave their hands, talk about the irrelevant, use diversionary
tactics I know that they are covering up and are in denial. ...ignore
the man behind the curtain...
--------- Risks Digest ---------------
newsgroup comp.risks has discovered Y2K, they're about 6 months behind
c.s.y2k but no matter, they're just a bunch of effete academics:
Here're some article headings from R19.84 of Risks:
Y2K problem worries CIA (Edupage)
Galaxy IV, 600 days and Y2K (Dennis Elenburg via Ben Torrey)
No manual switching for railroads; result, famine (Doneel Edelson)
REVIEW: "The Year 2000 Software Problem", Capers Jones (Rob Slade)
Risks is a moderated Forum, It's about the size of a WRP and comes out
once a week or so. They published my '000197AF' discovery several
years ago. They're a little too flat and tweedy for me.
Please denial-heads, submit a denial article to Risks; look, they're
talking about railroads too. Show them how big your brain is.
---------- de Jager's Listserv ----------
Peter's listserv has been discussing the accepting "Doom and Gloom"
posts on a limited basis. Here's part of Peter's position:
de Jager says:
> I created this maillist to discuss the ways in which we could fix the
>problem. It is my belief that when we start discussing how to build solar
>panels, rapid load Uzi's and grow bean sprouts, we have given up hope in
>our ability to fix this problem, and have doomed ourselves to defeat. I do
>NOT wish to be associated with defeatists. I still remain determinedly
>optimistic that we can solve what we need to solve and wish to focus my
>energies in that direction.
Amazing, an entire Y2K listserv dedicated to self delusion. The fact
is, the work hasn't been done and there isn't time left to do it. It
doesn't necessarily flow from that to:
1. Mad Milne and Beyond the Thunderdome.
2. Any remediation is hopeless.
The reality is, there are 41 days to decide to take action... either on
a personal ney-level or going the Project Cassandra route. After some
point, which I've arbitratily set at Y2K-500, there will not be enough
time left to start either.
By starting early, it's fairly simple to buy food, fuel, obtain
whatever you think you need. Basic staples are very cheap. You need
much less money than you think.
------------- Where am I -------------------
I'm *not* in these groups: 1) those who relish the thought of Gloom 'n
dooming, 2) the millennium marks the second coming, 3) the government
is an evil and only the second amendment keeps them at bay, 4) Poor
people in crowded ghettos are just waiting for a chance to swarm out
like mad hornets. 5) hunting, de-tasseling corn, fishing, boinking,
that's the life, just the basics and none of these pesky things like
bank loans and insurance payments.
I'm also *not* in these groups: 1) the ineffectual programmer wannabe's
who know Y2K is hype, 2) the college sophomore types who learned a
couple USENET debate tricks and think that because there's a lot of
chatter in c.s.y2k, like-DUH, it's like the other newsgroups and it's
the way that arguments are phrased that matter. 3) nattering old fools
who doubt everything, 4) nattering young fools who know it all and know
that Y2K is a fake foisted on them by old tricksters.
My position - I've been voting an Edwards: 4, and planning and prepping
for: regular interruptions in commercial power for up to 6 months,
financial chaos (stock market drops of up to Dow 5,000 in a year), bank
closings, ATM failures, credit cards problems (not at the merchant or at
Arnolds place but everywhere else in the chain.), food shortages.
That is what I expect to the better than 50% probability. Just as I
expect that in a ten year span, someone in my close circle of 20 will
require hospitalization, someone will have at least a fender-bender,
someone will be in court for something... to better than a 50%
probability.
I don't expect Y2K to cause TEOTW to hit the fan. I put that
probability to lower than 5%, but that doesn't mean that it won't
happen and I am taking *unusual* measures.
When a stew (odd, they're much older now), says, the captain has turned
on the fasten seatbelt light; we don't hollar out, you just want us to
sit in our seats and be docile while you run up and down the aisles...
this is a trick of you stews to have all the aisle space to
themselves... I have a big brain and I'm not falling for this cr*p.
We all take our seats and fasten our belts because we know to a
moral certainty that last year a Japanese 747 ran into turbulance over
the Pacific and a passenger was killed. What are the odds that it'll
happen to you or me? ...way less than 5%
While I assign a low probability to TEOTW hitting the fan, it's
clearly several orders of magnitude higher than being tossed to the
ceiling in a 747.
Denial-heads please, when they turn on the fasten seatbelt light,
hollar out, "this is just hype." Some states have seatbelt laws and
brake inspections; that's just more fear-mongering, show 'em how big
your brain is.
Here are my actions... I am prepping for an intermediate level of
Y2K problems at a suburban, neighbors on 1/2 acre lots, location. This
is about an Eastabrook: 2-2.5. So even though I voted Edwards
4, my actual preparations are at Eastabrook: 2-2.5.
As a separate effort, much like fastening a seatbelt on a 747, I am
helping a survivalist nut-case pal, he was the best man at my wedding,
prep his off the scale retreat. My intention is to donate a day a month
and perhaps a thousand dollars over the next 18 months, to his efforts.
I expect to be able to live in suburbia and when the TV stations are
transmitting, I'll watch the chaos on the tube... much like I can watch
the Florida fires now. When the power fails, I'll switch to a deep
cycle marine battery and if it stays off for more than a day, I'll cut
way back on power usage and recharge with the USS solar panel. I'll
have basics, rice, beans, red winter wheat, and experience in cooking,
so we won't go hungry and we'll wait it out... If it only goes an
Edwards: 2, 3, or 4....
BUT if it starts to go real bad, real fast, I'll head for the boonies
where my survivalist nut-case pal is aiming for an Eastabrook: 5.
Pass GregS's place which is in the hills, might stop to get some
deer jerky from GregS... I'll swap him some silver dimes for it. Keep
on going for another 15 miles or so, then swerve off onto a rural road,
through a cornfield, this place is hard to find. Honk the horn the
'right' way so I don't take a 7.62.
Here's the mid summer status report from the farm, there are now 50+
fruit trees out there, the shed is up, there's a cheap gas generator.
The plans for the next couple months are to put power in the shed and
start on food storage and alternative power, solar, wind, maybe a PTO
generator for "the tractor".
I kid a lot on c.s.y2k, I'm not kidding about the preparations
or my understanding of the risks and the probability of infrastructure
failures. Last night, I was showing the rgearity Y2K chat-line
pictures of the shed and the tractor. When I say, we're prepared
to build a berm across the access road, we're ready. If you stop by the
chat-line, I'll show you the snapshots.
------------ CCCC ------------
This report has been pretty much all clueless...
Did hear one technical issue this week. Microsoft's Rexx has a Y2K
problem.
say date('O')
---------- IBM definition ------------
ÄÄÄDATE(ÄÄÂÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÂÄ)ÄÄÄÄÄÄ
ÀÄoptionÄÄÙ
Ordered Returns date in the format: yy/mm/dd (suitable for sorting, and so on.)
DATE('O') -> '88/08/27'
----------- end IBM definition --------
There's supposed to be a fixed version but it doesn't incorporate the
Microsoft extensions. Oops.
Don't forget, 700 Club July 10th. Be there.
cory hamasaki 541 days.