Cory Hamasaki's DC Y2K Weather Report V2, # 30 "July 22, 1998 - 527 days to go." WRP86 (c) 1997, 1998 Cory Hamasaki - I grant permission to distribute and reproduce this newsletter as long as this entire document is reproduced in its entirety. You may optionally quote an individual article but you should include this header down to the tearline. I do not grant permission to a commercial publisher to reprint this in print media. As seen in USENET:comp.software.year-2000 http://www.elmbronze.demon.co.uk/year2000/ http://www.kiyoinc.com/HHResCo.html Don't forget, the Y2K chat-line: http://www.ntplx.net/~rgearity any evening, 8-10PM EST. --------------------tearline ----------------------------- Please fax or email copies of this to your geek pals, especially those idiots who keep sending you lightbulb, blonde, or Bill Gates jokes, and urban legends like the Arizona rocket car story. If you have a Y2K webpage, feel free to host the Weather Reports. Did you miss Geek Out? Project Dumbass needs you. In this issue: 1. Ed Yardeni 2. Solar and Comms 3. More Comms (long, deal with it.) 4. WDC Y2K - Lessons Learned ---- Exclusive Interview w/ Fast Eddie Yardeni ------- July 20, 1998 - I had a few minutes with Fast Eddie this morning. Here are the answers to my burning questions. DC WRP: Dr. Fast Eddie, a hearty welcome to DC. FE: Glad to be here.... say, where are we? I don't recognize anything about this place. Last I remember, I was in New York. DC WRP: uh... well, let's just say that DC WRP has its ways and drop it at that. I heard you speak at the WDC Year 2000 meeting at Fannie Mae... I also talk to Jay Goltier, I think you know him.... FE: Oh yes, Fannie Mae... and Jay... Jay's a good-guy, I know him well. He's over at .... DC WRP: First question, you've been taking some heat on the Internet, do you have any comments. FE: ... Internet? You mean discussion groups... <DC WRP nods> OK, well, I don't follow the discussion groups, the noise is too high, ... signal to noise ... isn't a good ratio. They are what they are... <shrugs> DC WRP: One of the issues seems to be your estimate of the probability of a recession, some people say you believe that it's a 100% but are holding back, is this true? FE: What's an estimate? ... if it's 70, 80, or 90 percent, what does that mean? These are just estimates, I'm trying to get people to take this seriously. DC WRP: I saw you on Wall Street Week the other month, it seemed the Louie cut you off when you brought up Y2K. FE: No-no, we were running out of time, what you didn't see was that Ruykheiser was giving me hand signs that we were out of time ... Lou doesn't understand Y2K, but no, he didn't cut me off. It may not have been the proper venue for addressing Y2K... DC WRP: I see that the teleport's charging and we'll be sending you back any second... one last question, I heard that you used to program in S/370 assembly language... FE: Yes, assembly language; boy it's a lot of fun, MVC's, AP, CP, that's why we're in so much trouble; it's so much fun, there's no engineering discipline; we've got decades of code that was just thrown together. I understand assembly language and that's why I'm so concerned about Y2K. I have a technical background unlike most others. I'm trying to sound the alarm and get people working on this. DC WRP: My feeling too; OK, Dr. Yardeni needs to get back to work, energize. FE: Say, where am .... bzzzzzzzt! --------------------------------- There it is, DC WRP spares no expense to bring you exclusive reports from the world of Y2K. This special interview with Fast Eddie answers several questions... Fast Eddie is into Y2K because he's an assembler gear-head, like Infomagic, :Dave, Shmuel, Bill Lynch and the other S/390, watercooled, parallel sysplex code crankers. He knows the problem in a way that President Al Gore (the self-hyped techno-head) will never understand. He's not playing a game with his probability estimates; the estimates are just estimates. What's important is that government and industry start to take Y2K seriously. He's doing his part. We need to do ours. --------- Reader's Mailbox - Solar & Comms --------------- Here's a slightly anonymized email from a regular reader: --------- For several reasons our small group's preparations pace has doubled recently. Not wanting to wait any longer for a backup power supply for my new used ham equipment, I started calling around for a panel. Nothing big mind you, just a 15 watt with a built in charge regulator. First two places I called....sold out and backordered, "maybe by the end of the month, maybe". Local battery shops and RV dealers......"None in stock, have to order them, maybe a month or two" " Normally have a few but they go quick right now". I ended up at realgoods.com and found a 22 watt panel and an 8 amp charge regulator with enough capacity I can add more modules later. Point is.....I had a hard time finding this stuff. You want solar to wind up your rig? Might consider buying NOW.... (as an aside, our itty bitty group is making all purchases within next few weeks, except maybe a few acres of land) Not sure if I will go for a hamster ticket later this month. That is one list that just might buy me trouble later, sorta like having a concealed carry permit. Paranoid? Who me? How dare you say that! Who sent you! Radio stuff.... Despaired of finding a good used rig local, almost ready to place order online with a big outfit. Last gasp...I placed an ad in the local paper. "HAM RADIO novice wants HF transceiver to learn with, also CB/SSB base." One week later I am owner of a Uniden Washington CB/SSB base with a D-104 silver eagle mike, punched out to an honest clean ten/twenty watts. AND a Yaesu FT-990 HF base (top of the line enough bells to play Bach) and an Alinco dual band mobile and a Yaesu VHF HT and a Dentron 1200 watt linear amp and a Drake antenna tuner and a rotor control and boxes of SWR meters, volt meters, co-ax, wire antennas, packet ready RS pc, and stuff I have no IDEA what it is. $580.oo !!!! $680 after a call to Yaesu for manuals on the FT-990, battery/charger for the HT. $780 after buying a used 5 band Hy-Gain vertical antenna. $850 with an Anstrom A-99 11 meter antenna for the CB. For under a grand I have first class worldwide AND local commo. Wanna lock of my hair for luck? Regards, XXXX PS...Even found deep cycle marine batteries (big ones) at Sam's club for $49.00. ----------- I got a United Solar Systems 10 Watt panel from Boater's World. Blue water long haul sailers use solar to power their lights and other electronics. Check out http://www.boatersworld.com, they'll send you a very nice 200+ page catalog. It's chock full of interesting stuff, solar panels, foul weather gear, energy control systems, inverters, scanners, radios, deep cycle marine batteries, night vision scopes, metal fuel tanks, Norcold 12VDC/110VAC refrigerators; oh, and on page 124, be sure to check out the "Primal Passion Tan Thru Tank", "A great looking low leg tank suit that features a structured halter top." For the geekettes (and guys who go 'that way') there are male swim suit models too. Those who were on the Y2K chatline lastweek and saw my pictures, I'm holding the USS panel. Solar is good for the long haul. a 10 watt panel might put 100 watt hours into a battery. This means that you have enough power to run a 1 KW microwave oven for 5 minutes or a 10 watt fluorescent lamp for 5-7 hours or the lamp and an LCD TV for a 3-5 hours. No part of this system works at 100%; you lose power all along the way. Lots of good tips in the email above. That FT-990 was an incredible bargain, with a good antenna, it can talk around the world. Like all current ham rigs, it includes a very high performance all band receiver. ------------ More Comms ------------------ This is long winded but critical to those prepping for the singularity. This section is drawn from: http://www.arrl.org/field/pscm/index.html Public Service Communications Manual Section I: Amateur Radio Emergency Service (ARES) ú Section II: National Traffic System (NTS) Foreword Introduction Section I: Amateur Radio Emergency Service (ARES) Chapter One: Amateur Radio Emergency Service 1.1 ARES Organization 1.2 Section Level 1.3 Local Level 1.4 District Level 1.5 Assistant ECs 1.6 Planning Committee 1.7 Operation and Flexibility 1.8 ARES Operation During Disasters Chapter Two: Simulated Emergency Test (SET) 2.1 Purpose of SET 2.2 SET Format 2.3 Preparing for SET 2.4 During the SET 2.5 After the SET 2.6 NTS in SET 2.7 Summary Chapter Three: ARES Mutual Assistance Team (ARESMAT) Concept 3.1 Pre-Departure Functions 3.2 In-Travel Functions 3.3 Arrival Functions 3.4 In-situ Functions 3.5 Pre-demobilization and Demobilization Functions 3.6 ARESMAT Member Qualifications 3.7 Summary Chapter Four: ARES and RACES 4.1 What is RACES? 4.2 Operating Procedure 4.3 ARES and RACES 4.4 Other Amateur facilities Chapter Five: ARES Principles of Disaster Communications Chapter Six: Working With Public Safety Officials Chapter Seven: On Serving "Served" Agencies 7.1 What to do? 7.2 Pulled Every Which Way But Loose 7.3 Another Kind of Competition Section II: National Traffic System (NTS) Chapter One: National Traffic System 1.1 Membership in NTS 1.2 Mode Chapter Two: Principles of NTS Operation 2.1 Local Nets 2.2 Section Nets 2.3 Region Nets 2.4 Area Nets 2.5 Transcontinental Corps 2.6 Digital Stations Chapter Three: NTS Policies 3.1 Sequence of Net Meetings 3.2 Options 3.3 Deviation from Normal Routing 3.4 Adherence to Schedules 3.5 Alternate Routings 3.6 Check-in Policy 3.7 Boundaries 3.8 Nomenclature 3.9 Combined Section Nets 3.10 Limited Load Capability 3.11 Observation of Time 3.12 Frequencies 3.13 Manager Appointments 3.14 Certification 3.15 Special Liaison Methods Chapter Four: Operation During Disasters 4.1 Section Traffic Manager, Net Manager Functions 4.2 Region Net Manager Functions 4.3 Area Net Manager Functions 4.4 Transcontinental Corps Director Functions 4.5 Area Staff Chairman Functions 4.6 General Policy 4.7 Health and Welfare Traffic Chapter Five: NTS Standard Net Procedures 5.1 Section Nets 5.2 Region Nets 5.3 Area Nets 5.4 Send and Receive Stations 5.5 Miscellaneous Procedures 5.6 Section and Local NTS Traffic Nodes 5.7 HF Digital Stations Chapter Six: ARRL Precedences and Handling Instructions 6.1 Emergency 6.2 Priority 6.3 Welfare 6.4 Routine 6.5 Handling Instructions Chapter Seven: Operation of the Transcontinental Corps 7.1 TCC Station Functions Chapter Eight: Operation of the Digital System 8.1 HF Digital NTS Operations 8.2 VHF Packet Radio Bulletin Boards Chapter Nine: NTS Traffic Routing 9.1 Example of NTS Message Routing 9.2 NTS Routing Guide 9.3 Message Routing in the Digital Station Network Chapter Ten: Counting Net Traffic 10.1 Net Traffic Count 10.2 Individual Traffic Count Chapter Eleven: On Getting More Traffic Appendix A: National Traffic System Terms of Reference Article One: Name Article Two: Purpose and General Functions Article Three: Specific Responsibilities Article Four: Membership Article Five: Area Staff Chairman Article Six: Methods and Procedures ------- From the Introduction ------- Public service communications have been a traditional responsibility of the Amateur Radio Service since 1913, when amateurs at the University of Michigan and Ohio State University, in conjunction with numerous individual amateurs in and around the region, successfully bridged the communications gap surrounding a large isolated area left by a severe windstorm in the Midwest. In those early days, such disaster work was spontaneous and without previous organization of any kind. In today's Amateur Radio, disaster work is a highly organized and worthwhile part of day-to-day operation, implemented principally through the Amateur Radio Emergency Service (ARES) and the National Traffic System (NTS), both sponsored by ARRL. The Radio Amateur Civil Emergency Service (RACES), independent nets and other amateur public service groups are also a part of ARRL-recognized Amateur Radio public service efforts. The ARES now consists of approximately 80,000 licensed amateurs who have registered their availability for emergency operation in the public interest. The operational leadership of ARES consists of approximately 2500 local and district emergency coordinators, along with the section ECs. NTS operates daily to handle local, medium and long-distance written traffic in standard ARRL format. NTS consists of nets at four levels, with lines of liaison connecting them for the systematic flow of message traffic from point of origin to point of delivery in the shortest possible time consistent with organizational training objectives and mass handlings. A subpart of the US amateur regulations (Part 97, Subpart E) provides for the Radio Amateur Civil Emergency Service. RACES is a special phase of amateur operation sponsored by local emergency management agencies with support from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and applies to US amateurs only. The primary purpose of RACES is to provide amateurs with a special opportunity to serve governmental civil preparedness agencies. ARRL has signed a memorandum of understanding with FEMA to enhance the coordination of ARRL and FEMA resources. This edition of the Public Service Communications Manual constitutes an overall source of basic information on the League's public service communications program. The appendices will provide the reader with additional operational details that are not covered in the rest of the booklet. ----------- ARES, RACES, the NTS is set up to handle emergency communications in the event... no, make it, when the Telco's (and cell phones) fail. If you are organizing your community, goin' milne in an organized fashion, you should get to know your NTS rep, the local EC... when commercial communications fail, hams (and for very local comms, CB'ers) are the only backstop. If you are in a small town, you may or may not have one of the 80,000 active ARES members near you... Hit the public service manual webpage in the URL above and get involved with ARES. -------------- Shocking news from WDC Y2K ------------ I attend WDC Y2K as a rep from my company and I write trip reports for a client. I also drop a copy of the trip report into the WRPs. I'm not the point of contract for WDC Y2K. Here is the contact info: Bruce F. Webster, CTO, Object Systems Group Chair, Washington DC Year 2000 Group email: bruce_webster@wdcy2k.org voice: 202.752.3979 pager: 800.516.3358 web: http://www.wdcy2k.org/ Important note, WDC Y2K is an RSVP meeting, you must email bruce yourself and ask to be on the admit slip. The meetings start promptly at 5:30 with the buffet, cocktail hour w/ open bar. Trip Report: July 21, 1998 - The buffet included crab cakes, dim sum, jalepeno cheese sticks, egg rolls, vegetable platters, fruit platters... pita bread and dips. DD distracted me and I was 4th in line but as usual, I was startled to see the other c.s.y2k'ers moving from the end of the buffet line. DD devoured the mango. There were two reports of c.s.y2k'ers ogling the lady marketeers, one of them offered an attractive blonde a ride. He's bad. I had 4 plates (they're only small ones) from the buffet. c.s.y2k's own tim burke attended. Speakers: Ina Kamenz, VP Marriot; Liz McInerney, VP Fidelity Investments, Carol Teasley, VP Fannie Mae. I'm not going to attribute any statements to individuals, there was a lot of overlap, and in a few cases, the comments should probably be off the record. Some people still don't get it ... Don't trust your vendors ... Testing, testing, testing ... be proactive ... still finding new systems after a couple years ... anyone who says, no problem, they're wrong ... Elevator problem is real ... It will take longer than you think ... have a retention program, starting to lose programmers ... very hard to replicate production system ... very expensive ... data aging is difficult ... tools don't find everything ... simulation tools don't simulate everything ... lots of bugs, bumps, snags ... compile everything ... look ahead and look back ... retest, one test is not enough. Here are the shockers: Two of the companies are starting to lose programmers in spite of a retention bonus plan that pays off in 1Q2000. This means that the rate curve has crossed the compensation bonus line and with 18 months to go to their Y2K bonus, geeks are bailing. The losers are the geeks who two years ago signed on to work at a set salary in exchange for a promised bonus. I told them to quit then. They have lost 2 years of salary increases. There are three winners in this game. The geeks who bailed to follow the money when millennium bonuses were offered; the company that paid sub-standard wages by promising bonuses; and the geeks to tuff it out to the end. The ones who bail now are the losers... unless they all decide to tuff it out, in that case, the company will not increase the size of the retention bonus. The Wall Street test went very bad for one of the participants... the test data went into their production system. <---<<< this is all the detail that is available. All the speakers seemed tired, worried, and I had the distinct impression that they'd never sign up for something like this again. I saw, deathmarch on two of their faces. Maybe it was the heat but the membership seened worn out too. ------------- CCCC -------------- I'm tuckered out, I have B.T.'s funeral tomorrow at Arlington National Cemetery. Take care of yourselves, I don't want to attend any more geek funerals. If your company isn't doing right by you, be sure to hit: http://www.headhunter.com http://www.dice.com http://www.washingtonpost.com cory hamasaki 527 days.