Cory Hamasaki's DC Y2K Weather Report V2, # 37
          "September 16, 1998 -  471 days to go."  WRP93
                        DRAFT                      $2.50 Cover Price.
    (c) 1997, 1998 Cory Hamasaki - I grant permission to distribute and
reproduce this newsletter as long as this entire document is reproduced in
its entirety.  You may optionally quote an individual article but you should
include this header down to the tearline.  I do not grant permission to a
commercial publisher to reprint this in print media.

As seen in
   USENET:comp.software.year-2000
   http://www.elmbronze.demon.co.uk/year2000/
   http://www.sonnet.co.uk/muse/dcwrp.html
   http://www.kiyoinc.com/HHResCo.html

Don't forget, the Y2K chat-line:  http://www.ntplx.net/~rgearity
any evening, 8-10PM EST. 
--------------------tearline -----------------------------
Please fax or email copies of this to your geek pals, especially those
idiots who keep sending you lightbulb, blonde, or Bill Gates jokes,
and urban legends like the Arizona rocket car story.

If you have a Y2K webpage, feel free to host the Weather Reports.

Did you miss Geek Out?
Project Dumbass needs you.

In this issue:

1.   DragonRanch
2.   A Clean Get Away
3.   mr. milne comes to washington
4.   koskinen
5.   LDS Bug Out Bag
6.   Subscriptions
7.   Washington Post
8.   Rates
9.   CCCC

----------------- Frank visits DragonRanch --------

Monday, fast cars, the whine of an aluminum VTEC engine as Frank Ney,
programmer-farmer, Ray-Bans flipped on his baseball cap, leans into the
curves through the Shennendoahs.  The blue car races up the Harry Flood
Byrd Highway of Pork ... ETA 20 minutes, the apple orchards and dairy
farms blur by.

"There it is."  Frank doesn't notice anything, the car whips off the
Highway of Pork onto an unmarked road, paved but barely wide enough for
two cars.  Up and down the rolling hills hills, a mile, two,  "That
field is part of the farm... it's not contiguous though."  Left turn,
then right... bales of hay, "We go down this gravel road... now through
this corn field, it's only about a mile now."

Beeeeeeeep beep-beep.
Beeeeeeeep beep-beep.  <----<<< not the real signal, so don't try it.

We're OK, he knows it's us.  I called him this morning.

Frank looks around, spots an enclosed cab 4WD tractor.  "Nice tractor",
he comments.

"That's not *the* tractor.  It's over there."

Frank looks past the International Harvester and sees a big, air
conditioned, 4WD John Deere behind it, then he sees the rest of the
machinery... it looks like a farm equipment vendor at a county fair, a
dozen pieces of serious farm machinery are parked on the perfectly
manicured hill.

cory points out the tank with 250 gallons of diesel, the storage shed,
the fruit trees, the main house and as they are walking the cool quiet
morning fields of September....

"Yo... want some donuts?"  The Baron calls out.  He's six feet tall and
masses 220 lbs, solid muscle, steel blue eyes. A large black dog is at
his side, a Springfield Armory M1A with iron sights in one hand. He 
waves with the other, "come on in, coffees on."

A few minutes later,  after cory and Frank pop a couple donuts... to
keep their McBreakfasts company, he takes them on a walking tour of the
farm.  "This is an impossible task, between my day job as a programmer,
my studies in electrical engineering at the university, I can't keep up
with DragonRanch.  I've been out here for almost 15 years, cory helped
me move from Fairfax; I haven't completed half the projects that I
wanted.... maybe after Y2K, when my job is gone and the university is
closed, I'll have the time and help to really fix this place up."

DragonRanch is a work in progress, the pond is an overgrown sinkhole fed
by a trickle from the springhouse. The main barn is a wreck, needs about
fifty grand in repairs.  Two other buildings are still on the drawing
board.  Off grid power is grossly inadequate, fuel storage should be
doubled or tripled... there is the second fuel tank to be cleaned and 
put into service.

There's a half million dollars invested in the land, buildings,
machinery, supplies, none of which was allocated *for Y2K*, all of
which will help if there is a Y2K collapse. Another hundred grand
will be invested before Y2K.  This is a continuation of the master plan
for DragonRanch and not a Y2K driven panic.

"Money is not the issue, priorities, careful planning are."  Money is
always the issue.  You could sink a million dollars on pointless
projects and waste it all or you could carefully allocate one 
percent of that amount, ten grand, and accomplish much more.

------------ A clean getaway ----------
<reprint from c.s.y2k>

I had lunch with one of the DeeCee area superprogrammers today, ran into
him by chance at a local lunch dive.  He was finishing up, spooning some
ice cream.  I ordered a cilantro lime chicken sandwich and an ale, while
waiting for my order, we chatted.

Mr. superprogrammer works for a large NYSE listed corporation, you've
heard of them but lets keep their name confidential... -shsssh-  No, no
clues.

I'd asked him about Y2K in the past so I didn't have to prompt him to
spill the beans.

He whispered that his MIS VP and CIO have announced their "retirement".
Then he detailed the schedule for the deathmarch, they are rebuilding
the corporate information system, it's currently *not* y2k compliant.
"If we only had an additional year and a half..." -sigh-

I didn't tell him that a couple weeks ago, I heard that the Chief
Scientist was also "retiring".

Hmmmm, the MIS VP, the CIO, and the Chief Scientist... all three are
suddenly retiring.   They announce the death march schedule. ....and by
the way, we'll see you around, clowns.  Haww haww haww, suckers!

A superprogrammer who has a decade of experience on the corporate
information system wants an extra year and a half... until summer 2001.
But this schedule can't slip.

Ooooo, this one hard, could there be a connection?  They're making a
*clean* getaway.   -brrrr- scary.

By the way, the press releases say that they're doing fine, almost Y2K
compliant now; trust us, we "get it".

Maybe Mr. superprogrammer will bail too, he could, he has CICS, S/370
assembler, JES2, C/C++, MQSeries, and lots more.

This story is significant because it is the first occurance of senior IT
management making a *clean* get away that I'm familiar with.  It's
happening; denial-heads, get used to it.

------------------- paul milne ---------------------

Somehow GregS90210 lured the rare and elusive paul milne from his 
survivalist hideout in southwestern Virginia.  

...a 1967 Chevrolet Bel Air, trim held on by duct tape, the left rear
window half up and partially out of the track, winds its way up Highway
I81 in the right lane, trailing a cloud of blue smoke, -bang- -pop-
-pop-, the 283 engine misses and sputters, the Bel Air drops small 
pieces of random car parts; "Butt-Head", the battle cry goes up, "You're
a Butt-Head." alternated with "Kos-ki-nen, I'm coming for *you*!"

The driver is a tall, muscular, angry man, his salt and pepper beard and
close trimmed hair hint at a military background.  As the Bel Air
crests a rise, he flexes a 16 inch bicep, pulls the Hurst Synchro-Loc,
the GM T-85 bangs and grinds.  The fields along side I81 are dry, burned
out, crop failure time... failure, like the Y2K projects.

It's not paul milne, it's everyman seeking an accounting, seeking
justice, looking for an honest answer for the pain that is spreading 
across the country.  This, in the failed summer of our worse year;
as the world economy unravels, drought ruins the crops, and the GAO and
the Federal Inspector Generals discover blatant irregularities at the
DoD, FAA, and State departments.

Everyman exercising his right to be angry at fraud, to ask questions, 
and to learn, just what the h*ll is going on here, anyway.

Angry - because there is more than a slight chance that the sloth, fear,
ignorance, denial, grabbing mine, has put everything at risk and in 471
days the weakest of society will begin to suffer and gangrene and
corruption will eat the muscle out of our civilization.

The destination, Rocklands in Arlington, Virginia, Yuppie heaven, a 
Barbecue joint decorated to look like a small town auto repair shop in 
the middle of a Manhattan-esque gaggle of new office buildings.

From his office, cory debates whether he has time for a prelunch, 10:30 
snack. ... stop at the 7-11 for just a little snack...

11:45 am, SHMUEL sends off one last email to IBM publications, a half 
dozen corrections to their Principles of Operation section on IO.  "When
will they get it right..."  He slips a "tool" under his coat ... never
again, he whispers.

Scene: ROCKLANDS.

Attendees: Paul Makinen, GregS90210, SHMUEL, paul and Lynda milne, 
Declan, Tim Burke, and Rev. Bob.
  
Greg staked out a comfortable conversation pit near the decorative gas 
pumps... Rocklands is very strange, very trendy, tres chic.  The pork 
barbecue and greens is to die for...

Topics discussed: Federal status, banking, rail, how much paul milne 
looks like tim may, prestaging food in towns and cities, root cellars,
meltdown in Russia, Rockland's barbecue, probability of swarms of people
leaving the cities, importance of clean, safe water, Jerry Falwell,
non-hybred seeds, root cellars, herbal medicine, home schooling, power.
Bill and Monica did come up twice but we moved on to Y2K.

A full two hours of the best of Y2K talk, what can we do, how can we do 
it, we have a problem, if we only had the power to solve this problem.

Topics not discussed: specific survivalist techniques, weapons, the 
denial-heads of c.s.y2k other than some muttering between paul milne and
SHMUEL.
 
I dipped into my survival stash to give paul and Lynda some snacks for 
their trip back.  Also gave paul a white NRA "goodguy" cap. 

------------------- john koskinen ------------------

Scene: The great hall at Fannie Mae Corp, just a few blocks from the
Georgetown Starbucks where three young people were killed "execution
style" last year.

The buffet, spicy chicken wings, several kinds of dim sum, egg rolls,
pita and other breads and dips and spreads, fruit and vegetable 
platters, open bar, desert bar... I was working the crowd, gathering 
information and missed the opening bell,  I was shocked to see 
GregS90210 going for seconds before I got my first plate.  Greg is a big
boy.  ...a big boy.

We have this talk and the Q&A on video tape. ...and good thing too.
Please, sit, this will be hard to take, shocking.

My interpretation: The Federal Government has abdicated on Y2K, they are
*not* going to make it, they know it, they admit it, they're not sure
what to do now.

Judge for yourself.

<sound bites from the talk by john koskinen, the Federal Y2K Tzar and
willemsen of the GAO> ... congress very concerned ... concern spreading
... water, power, telecom ... where do we stand as a nation ... *hope*
disruptions are minimal ... set priorities ... troubled agency ...
Social security looking at contingencies (note they're the agency with
the *best* chance of making it) ... DoD to stop all new development
... there is one priority, Y2K  ... pursue emergency preparedness ... I
think we're at risk ... all functions at risk ... can't speed up 
remediation ... more likely will not make it ...  FAA to do what it can 
... massive problem.

Oh my, oh my, oh my, I thought in my own clueless way. The feds are 
giving up.

They mentioned two shocking factoids:

1.  Of two unnamed large cities of comparable size, one has a Y2K 
budget of $300 Million, the other has a $3 Million budget.  bzzzzt, 
reality disconnect time.  It's wacky, no one knows what needs to be 
done, what it costs, how to do it.

2. Lubbock Texas is running a Y2K disaster drill - they thought this was
a good thing.  bzzzzt, the federal meeting attenders, the smooze-boys, 
think a bunch of yokels running around in "Y2K Civil Defense" T-shirts,
clipboards 'n CB radios, is a solution.  I think it is too but then, I'm
at Edwards 4.0.  Is koskinen also at Edwards 4.0?

koskinen said several times that they are trying to get the message to
the grass roots, local community level, this is a problem, get ready
NOW. Oh my, oh my, oh my.... this was the scariest part of the whole
talk. When milne did it with 900 days to go, it was a USENET loon
fear-mongering; what is it when the feds do it with 471 days to go?
I'm ... scared.

Oh, and CBNnews had koskinen sputtering, back pedalling, and hand-waving
... the issue?  Well, it's subtle, there are some 52 thousand 
non-mission critical federal systems and only 7.3 thousand mission
critical systems.  Of the mission critical systems, about half are Y2K
compliant or ready by someone's criteria.  The other half might be ready
real soon now, although some have completion dates at the end of summer
1999... some don't have completion dates.  

The issues?  Explain the billions of dollars spent running and
maintaining non-mission critical systems, what happens when they
stop or produce wacky data?  Half of mission critical might sound good 
but it's really 12% (roughly) of all federal systems.  Duh, huh?  This 
is good?

-- Good News from the meeting --

1. met the rep from the Episcopal Diocese. He's taking it very 
seriously and is working with the bishop. 

2. spoke with CBNnews. You've seen their 700 Club Y2K specials.  They 
are the leaders in Y2K awareness and are preparing a big show in 
October.

3. Citizens for Y2K Recovery is going to press with the news letter.

The feds have given up... well, if you ask them, they'll say they're 
working hard, are optimistic, have lots of meetings scheduled, (or as 
paul milne whispered, they have appointed the committee to write the 
policy and mission statement on re-arranging deck chairs.)  

The feds can't say it but I can.  They're not going to make it, they're
where c.s.y2k was a year ago.  Our last hope is the local level, street 
level almost, efforts.  It's up to you to work with your community, your
neigbors, relatives, and your parish.   It's up to you.

Each of you must prepare, don't spend too much time thinking about this,
471 days until Y2K, 106 days until the Jo Anne Effect.  You have about 
15 weekends until the January 1999.

Here's what you need to handle this weekend.

-------------------- LDS Bug Out Bag -----------------

This is from the LDS webpage.

Emergency Storage

Each individual in the family should have a portable container with 
emergency supplies that will sustain life for 72 hours. It should be 
kept where it can be picked up at a moment's notice.

Items needed for one adult:

 3 day supply of food that doesn't require cooking or refrigeration
   non-fat dry milk - 1/2 pound
   graham crackers - 1 pound
   dried apricots - 1 pound
   canned orange or tomato juice - 46 ounce
   peanut butter - 1/2 pound
   water - 1 gallon
 bedding - blanket, cloth sheet, plastic sheet
 one change of clothing including two pairs of stockings
 toiletries sanitary supplies 
 first aid supplies and booklet
 cleaning supplies 
 matches candle flashlight signal flare
 can opener

Emergency items needed for the whole family:                                   

 dishpan dishes utensils ax shovel bucket radio paper pencil medications
---------- end clip from LDS-------

Hmmmm, I don't see a fine U.S. manufactured assault rifle and two 30
round mags of .223, shuriken or tanto on the list.

Looks like most of us already have everything for an LDS Bug Out Bag,
you'll probably need to spend $5-10 bucks per family member to round it 
out.  BFD.

Next week, pick up 1 gold eagle or 20 silver eagles and add them to your
Bug Out Bag.  <this tip is from a WDC Y2K attendee.>  If you don't need 
it, it's a nice addition to your family legacy, so it's a zero cost item
too.  BFD.

-------------------- Subscriptions ------------------

I've received more requests for a mail subscription version of the DC
WRPs, thinking about doing it.  If I do it, the usenet/web WRPS
will be still be available but will be collected into a monthly 
newsletter with tighter editing.  Given the postal rates, I'd want to 
ship first class rather than book/magazine which puts the postage and 
printing to about a dollar a copy, add in list maintenance, hiring  
people to do the production, it'd have to be about $30/year.  As a 
formal pub for hire, as opposed to stray usenet/web chatter, the
copyright issues get messier.

-------------------- Washington Post ----------------

56 pages of High-tech, computer job ads on Sunday, September 13, 1998.
Hit the webpage at http://www.washingtonpost.com. The ad text can be
searched using the Post's job search engine.  Please take the time to
search for a better job for yourself.  56 Pages is a huge amount... yes,
most of the jobs are still generic SQL, Lan tech, help desk, system
integrator, etc.  Lots of mainframe and Y2K jobs too.

This is a chance to be part of the solution and better your lot in life.

...but the Y2K hiring panic has not started yet.  Wait until the DoD 
embargo on new development (PeeCeeWeeNee and Unix stuff) hits and they 
follow the mandate for Y2K (Legacy Systems) only remediation.

Federal contractors, start inserting "Y2K" and "Year 2000" into your
project plans and reports.

------------------- Rates --------------------------

Just got an email from an old pal, he cites rates of $100 and $125/hour
for mainframe work... and he is booked up 100%.  I visited him about two
years ago... at that time he was struggling to make ends meet and was
looking for $60/hour work.  ....looking for, as in, between jobs.

-------------------- CCCC --------------------------

The readership of the WRPs is increasing. New readers, check the web and
deja-news for back issues.  Those of you with Y2K webpages, are welcome
to host the WRPs according to the guidelines at the top.  Note, the WRPs
are written to be entertaining and inflamatory and are not formal 
advice, you are encouraged to doubt everything written here.

On Y2K risks.

I've been looking at this wrong, thinking that the issue is how long,
how long will the power be out, how long will it take to figure out how 
to ship food on rail systems that don't have computers.  How long isn't 
the issue.

The issue is, how bad.  I looked through the LDS pages and considered my
own preparations,  I don't care if the power is out for 2 weeks or 2 
months.  I don't care if the grocery stores are out of milk, eggs, and 
bread for 2 weeks or 2 months.

What I do care about is whether the collapse triggers civil 
disturbances, a depression, a deflation, a civil war, a pandemic.

The philosophy behind the LDS bug out bag and the Gold Eagle is that, it
might get so bad, so fast, that I have get out of Dodge, beat-feet, make
a break for it.

I spoke with SHMUEL about this and neither of us (we're both code-heads,
enterprise systems programmers.) thinks that the milne-ney-infomagic 
scenario has a high probability.  However, I'm including that scenario 
in my long term plans and SHMUEL declines to detail his preparations 
because there is risk in doing that.  

cory hamasaki 471 days.  Something wicked, this way comes.