Cory Hamasaki's DC Y2K Weather Report V2, # 37 "September 16, 1998 - 471 days to go." WRP93 DRAFT $2.50 Cover Price. (c) 1997, 1998 Cory Hamasaki - I grant permission to distribute and reproduce this newsletter as long as this entire document is reproduced in its entirety. You may optionally quote an individual article but you should include this header down to the tearline. I do not grant permission to a commercial publisher to reprint this in print media. As seen in USENET:comp.software.year-2000 http://www.elmbronze.demon.co.uk/year2000/ http://www.sonnet.co.uk/muse/dcwrp.html http://www.kiyoinc.com/HHResCo.html Don't forget, the Y2K chat-line: http://www.ntplx.net/~rgearity any evening, 8-10PM EST. --------------------tearline ----------------------------- Please fax or email copies of this to your geek pals, especially those idiots who keep sending you lightbulb, blonde, or Bill Gates jokes, and urban legends like the Arizona rocket car story. If you have a Y2K webpage, feel free to host the Weather Reports. Did you miss Geek Out? Project Dumbass needs you. In this issue: 1. DragonRanch 2. A Clean Get Away 3. mr. milne comes to washington 4. koskinen 5. LDS Bug Out Bag 6. Subscriptions 7. Washington Post 8. Rates 9. CCCC ----------------- Frank visits DragonRanch -------- Monday, fast cars, the whine of an aluminum VTEC engine as Frank Ney, programmer-farmer, Ray-Bans flipped on his baseball cap, leans into the curves through the Shennendoahs. The blue car races up the Harry Flood Byrd Highway of Pork ... ETA 20 minutes, the apple orchards and dairy farms blur by. "There it is." Frank doesn't notice anything, the car whips off the Highway of Pork onto an unmarked road, paved but barely wide enough for two cars. Up and down the rolling hills hills, a mile, two, "That field is part of the farm... it's not contiguous though." Left turn, then right... bales of hay, "We go down this gravel road... now through this corn field, it's only about a mile now." Beeeeeeeep beep-beep. Beeeeeeeep beep-beep. <----<<< not the real signal, so don't try it. We're OK, he knows it's us. I called him this morning. Frank looks around, spots an enclosed cab 4WD tractor. "Nice tractor", he comments. "That's not *the* tractor. It's over there." Frank looks past the International Harvester and sees a big, air conditioned, 4WD John Deere behind it, then he sees the rest of the machinery... it looks like a farm equipment vendor at a county fair, a dozen pieces of serious farm machinery are parked on the perfectly manicured hill. cory points out the tank with 250 gallons of diesel, the storage shed, the fruit trees, the main house and as they are walking the cool quiet morning fields of September.... "Yo... want some donuts?" The Baron calls out. He's six feet tall and masses 220 lbs, solid muscle, steel blue eyes. A large black dog is at his side, a Springfield Armory M1A with iron sights in one hand. He waves with the other, "come on in, coffees on." A few minutes later, after cory and Frank pop a couple donuts... to keep their McBreakfasts company, he takes them on a walking tour of the farm. "This is an impossible task, between my day job as a programmer, my studies in electrical engineering at the university, I can't keep up with DragonRanch. I've been out here for almost 15 years, cory helped me move from Fairfax; I haven't completed half the projects that I wanted.... maybe after Y2K, when my job is gone and the university is closed, I'll have the time and help to really fix this place up." DragonRanch is a work in progress, the pond is an overgrown sinkhole fed by a trickle from the springhouse. The main barn is a wreck, needs about fifty grand in repairs. Two other buildings are still on the drawing board. Off grid power is grossly inadequate, fuel storage should be doubled or tripled... there is the second fuel tank to be cleaned and put into service. There's a half million dollars invested in the land, buildings, machinery, supplies, none of which was allocated *for Y2K*, all of which will help if there is a Y2K collapse. Another hundred grand will be invested before Y2K. This is a continuation of the master plan for DragonRanch and not a Y2K driven panic. "Money is not the issue, priorities, careful planning are." Money is always the issue. You could sink a million dollars on pointless projects and waste it all or you could carefully allocate one percent of that amount, ten grand, and accomplish much more. ------------ A clean getaway ---------- <reprint from c.s.y2k> I had lunch with one of the DeeCee area superprogrammers today, ran into him by chance at a local lunch dive. He was finishing up, spooning some ice cream. I ordered a cilantro lime chicken sandwich and an ale, while waiting for my order, we chatted. Mr. superprogrammer works for a large NYSE listed corporation, you've heard of them but lets keep their name confidential... -shsssh- No, no clues. I'd asked him about Y2K in the past so I didn't have to prompt him to spill the beans. He whispered that his MIS VP and CIO have announced their "retirement". Then he detailed the schedule for the deathmarch, they are rebuilding the corporate information system, it's currently *not* y2k compliant. "If we only had an additional year and a half..." -sigh- I didn't tell him that a couple weeks ago, I heard that the Chief Scientist was also "retiring". Hmmmm, the MIS VP, the CIO, and the Chief Scientist... all three are suddenly retiring. They announce the death march schedule. ....and by the way, we'll see you around, clowns. Haww haww haww, suckers! A superprogrammer who has a decade of experience on the corporate information system wants an extra year and a half... until summer 2001. But this schedule can't slip. Ooooo, this one hard, could there be a connection? They're making a *clean* getaway. -brrrr- scary. By the way, the press releases say that they're doing fine, almost Y2K compliant now; trust us, we "get it". Maybe Mr. superprogrammer will bail too, he could, he has CICS, S/370 assembler, JES2, C/C++, MQSeries, and lots more. This story is significant because it is the first occurance of senior IT management making a *clean* get away that I'm familiar with. It's happening; denial-heads, get used to it. ------------------- paul milne --------------------- Somehow GregS90210 lured the rare and elusive paul milne from his survivalist hideout in southwestern Virginia. ...a 1967 Chevrolet Bel Air, trim held on by duct tape, the left rear window half up and partially out of the track, winds its way up Highway I81 in the right lane, trailing a cloud of blue smoke, -bang- -pop- -pop-, the 283 engine misses and sputters, the Bel Air drops small pieces of random car parts; "Butt-Head", the battle cry goes up, "You're a Butt-Head." alternated with "Kos-ki-nen, I'm coming for *you*!" The driver is a tall, muscular, angry man, his salt and pepper beard and close trimmed hair hint at a military background. As the Bel Air crests a rise, he flexes a 16 inch bicep, pulls the Hurst Synchro-Loc, the GM T-85 bangs and grinds. The fields along side I81 are dry, burned out, crop failure time... failure, like the Y2K projects. It's not paul milne, it's everyman seeking an accounting, seeking justice, looking for an honest answer for the pain that is spreading across the country. This, in the failed summer of our worse year; as the world economy unravels, drought ruins the crops, and the GAO and the Federal Inspector Generals discover blatant irregularities at the DoD, FAA, and State departments. Everyman exercising his right to be angry at fraud, to ask questions, and to learn, just what the h*ll is going on here, anyway. Angry - because there is more than a slight chance that the sloth, fear, ignorance, denial, grabbing mine, has put everything at risk and in 471 days the weakest of society will begin to suffer and gangrene and corruption will eat the muscle out of our civilization. The destination, Rocklands in Arlington, Virginia, Yuppie heaven, a Barbecue joint decorated to look like a small town auto repair shop in the middle of a Manhattan-esque gaggle of new office buildings. From his office, cory debates whether he has time for a prelunch, 10:30 snack. ... stop at the 7-11 for just a little snack... 11:45 am, SHMUEL sends off one last email to IBM publications, a half dozen corrections to their Principles of Operation section on IO. "When will they get it right..." He slips a "tool" under his coat ... never again, he whispers. Scene: ROCKLANDS. Attendees: Paul Makinen, GregS90210, SHMUEL, paul and Lynda milne, Declan, Tim Burke, and Rev. Bob. Greg staked out a comfortable conversation pit near the decorative gas pumps... Rocklands is very strange, very trendy, tres chic. The pork barbecue and greens is to die for... Topics discussed: Federal status, banking, rail, how much paul milne looks like tim may, prestaging food in towns and cities, root cellars, meltdown in Russia, Rockland's barbecue, probability of swarms of people leaving the cities, importance of clean, safe water, Jerry Falwell, non-hybred seeds, root cellars, herbal medicine, home schooling, power. Bill and Monica did come up twice but we moved on to Y2K. A full two hours of the best of Y2K talk, what can we do, how can we do it, we have a problem, if we only had the power to solve this problem. Topics not discussed: specific survivalist techniques, weapons, the denial-heads of c.s.y2k other than some muttering between paul milne and SHMUEL. I dipped into my survival stash to give paul and Lynda some snacks for their trip back. Also gave paul a white NRA "goodguy" cap. ------------------- john koskinen ------------------ Scene: The great hall at Fannie Mae Corp, just a few blocks from the Georgetown Starbucks where three young people were killed "execution style" last year. The buffet, spicy chicken wings, several kinds of dim sum, egg rolls, pita and other breads and dips and spreads, fruit and vegetable platters, open bar, desert bar... I was working the crowd, gathering information and missed the opening bell, I was shocked to see GregS90210 going for seconds before I got my first plate. Greg is a big boy. ...a big boy. We have this talk and the Q&A on video tape. ...and good thing too. Please, sit, this will be hard to take, shocking. My interpretation: The Federal Government has abdicated on Y2K, they are *not* going to make it, they know it, they admit it, they're not sure what to do now. Judge for yourself. <sound bites from the talk by john koskinen, the Federal Y2K Tzar and willemsen of the GAO> ... congress very concerned ... concern spreading ... water, power, telecom ... where do we stand as a nation ... *hope* disruptions are minimal ... set priorities ... troubled agency ... Social security looking at contingencies (note they're the agency with the *best* chance of making it) ... DoD to stop all new development ... there is one priority, Y2K ... pursue emergency preparedness ... I think we're at risk ... all functions at risk ... can't speed up remediation ... more likely will not make it ... FAA to do what it can ... massive problem. Oh my, oh my, oh my, I thought in my own clueless way. The feds are giving up. They mentioned two shocking factoids: 1. Of two unnamed large cities of comparable size, one has a Y2K budget of $300 Million, the other has a $3 Million budget. bzzzzt, reality disconnect time. It's wacky, no one knows what needs to be done, what it costs, how to do it. 2. Lubbock Texas is running a Y2K disaster drill - they thought this was a good thing. bzzzzt, the federal meeting attenders, the smooze-boys, think a bunch of yokels running around in "Y2K Civil Defense" T-shirts, clipboards 'n CB radios, is a solution. I think it is too but then, I'm at Edwards 4.0. Is koskinen also at Edwards 4.0? koskinen said several times that they are trying to get the message to the grass roots, local community level, this is a problem, get ready NOW. Oh my, oh my, oh my.... this was the scariest part of the whole talk. When milne did it with 900 days to go, it was a USENET loon fear-mongering; what is it when the feds do it with 471 days to go? I'm ... scared. Oh, and CBNnews had koskinen sputtering, back pedalling, and hand-waving ... the issue? Well, it's subtle, there are some 52 thousand non-mission critical federal systems and only 7.3 thousand mission critical systems. Of the mission critical systems, about half are Y2K compliant or ready by someone's criteria. The other half might be ready real soon now, although some have completion dates at the end of summer 1999... some don't have completion dates. The issues? Explain the billions of dollars spent running and maintaining non-mission critical systems, what happens when they stop or produce wacky data? Half of mission critical might sound good but it's really 12% (roughly) of all federal systems. Duh, huh? This is good? -- Good News from the meeting -- 1. met the rep from the Episcopal Diocese. He's taking it very seriously and is working with the bishop. 2. spoke with CBNnews. You've seen their 700 Club Y2K specials. They are the leaders in Y2K awareness and are preparing a big show in October. 3. Citizens for Y2K Recovery is going to press with the news letter. The feds have given up... well, if you ask them, they'll say they're working hard, are optimistic, have lots of meetings scheduled, (or as paul milne whispered, they have appointed the committee to write the policy and mission statement on re-arranging deck chairs.) The feds can't say it but I can. They're not going to make it, they're where c.s.y2k was a year ago. Our last hope is the local level, street level almost, efforts. It's up to you to work with your community, your neigbors, relatives, and your parish. It's up to you. Each of you must prepare, don't spend too much time thinking about this, 471 days until Y2K, 106 days until the Jo Anne Effect. You have about 15 weekends until the January 1999. Here's what you need to handle this weekend. -------------------- LDS Bug Out Bag ----------------- This is from the LDS webpage. Emergency Storage Each individual in the family should have a portable container with emergency supplies that will sustain life for 72 hours. It should be kept where it can be picked up at a moment's notice. Items needed for one adult: 3 day supply of food that doesn't require cooking or refrigeration non-fat dry milk - 1/2 pound graham crackers - 1 pound dried apricots - 1 pound canned orange or tomato juice - 46 ounce peanut butter - 1/2 pound water - 1 gallon bedding - blanket, cloth sheet, plastic sheet one change of clothing including two pairs of stockings toiletries sanitary supplies first aid supplies and booklet cleaning supplies matches candle flashlight signal flare can opener Emergency items needed for the whole family: dishpan dishes utensils ax shovel bucket radio paper pencil medications ---------- end clip from LDS------- Hmmmm, I don't see a fine U.S. manufactured assault rifle and two 30 round mags of .223, shuriken or tanto on the list. Looks like most of us already have everything for an LDS Bug Out Bag, you'll probably need to spend $5-10 bucks per family member to round it out. BFD. Next week, pick up 1 gold eagle or 20 silver eagles and add them to your Bug Out Bag. <this tip is from a WDC Y2K attendee.> If you don't need it, it's a nice addition to your family legacy, so it's a zero cost item too. BFD. -------------------- Subscriptions ------------------ I've received more requests for a mail subscription version of the DC WRPs, thinking about doing it. If I do it, the usenet/web WRPS will be still be available but will be collected into a monthly newsletter with tighter editing. Given the postal rates, I'd want to ship first class rather than book/magazine which puts the postage and printing to about a dollar a copy, add in list maintenance, hiring people to do the production, it'd have to be about $30/year. As a formal pub for hire, as opposed to stray usenet/web chatter, the copyright issues get messier. -------------------- Washington Post ---------------- 56 pages of High-tech, computer job ads on Sunday, September 13, 1998. Hit the webpage at http://www.washingtonpost.com. The ad text can be searched using the Post's job search engine. Please take the time to search for a better job for yourself. 56 Pages is a huge amount... yes, most of the jobs are still generic SQL, Lan tech, help desk, system integrator, etc. Lots of mainframe and Y2K jobs too. This is a chance to be part of the solution and better your lot in life. ...but the Y2K hiring panic has not started yet. Wait until the DoD embargo on new development (PeeCeeWeeNee and Unix stuff) hits and they follow the mandate for Y2K (Legacy Systems) only remediation. Federal contractors, start inserting "Y2K" and "Year 2000" into your project plans and reports. ------------------- Rates -------------------------- Just got an email from an old pal, he cites rates of $100 and $125/hour for mainframe work... and he is booked up 100%. I visited him about two years ago... at that time he was struggling to make ends meet and was looking for $60/hour work. ....looking for, as in, between jobs. -------------------- CCCC -------------------------- The readership of the WRPs is increasing. New readers, check the web and deja-news for back issues. Those of you with Y2K webpages, are welcome to host the WRPs according to the guidelines at the top. Note, the WRPs are written to be entertaining and inflamatory and are not formal advice, you are encouraged to doubt everything written here. On Y2K risks. I've been looking at this wrong, thinking that the issue is how long, how long will the power be out, how long will it take to figure out how to ship food on rail systems that don't have computers. How long isn't the issue. The issue is, how bad. I looked through the LDS pages and considered my own preparations, I don't care if the power is out for 2 weeks or 2 months. I don't care if the grocery stores are out of milk, eggs, and bread for 2 weeks or 2 months. What I do care about is whether the collapse triggers civil disturbances, a depression, a deflation, a civil war, a pandemic. The philosophy behind the LDS bug out bag and the Gold Eagle is that, it might get so bad, so fast, that I have get out of Dodge, beat-feet, make a break for it. I spoke with SHMUEL about this and neither of us (we're both code-heads, enterprise systems programmers.) thinks that the milne-ney-infomagic scenario has a high probability. However, I'm including that scenario in my long term plans and SHMUEL declines to detail his preparations because there is risk in doing that. cory hamasaki 471 days. Something wicked, this way comes.