Cory Hamasaki's DC Y2K Weather Report V2, # 39
"September 29, 1998 - 458 days to go." WRP95
Final $2.50 Cover Price.
(c) 1997, 1998 Cory Hamasaki - I grant permission to distribute and
reproduce this newsletter as long as this entire document is reproduced in
its entirety. You may optionally quote an individual article but you should
include this header down to the tearline or provide a link to the
header. I do not grant permission to a commercial publisher to reprint
this in print media.
As seen in
USENET:comp.software.year-2000
http://www.elmbronze.demon.co.uk/year2000/
http://www.sonnet.co.uk/muse/dcwrp.html
http://GONOW.TO/Y2KFACTS
http://www.kiyoinc.com/HHResCo.html
Don't forget, the Y2K chat-line: http://www.ntplx.net/~rgearity
any evening, 8-10PM EST.
--------------------tearline -----------------------------
Please fax or email copies of this to your geek pals, especially those
idiots who keep sending you lightbulb, blonde, or Bill Gates jokes,
and urban legends like the Arizona rocket car story.
If you have a Y2K webpage, feel free to host the Weather Reports.
Did you miss Geek Out?
Project Dumbass needs you.
In this issue:
1. Job ads
2. Canada Banking and Power
3. Community
4. CCCC
Enterprise -------- Post Ads ---------------
http://www.washingtonpost.com has the DC area job search engine. The
printed post ran 18 pages of high-tech, geek need ads last Sunday. Here
are a few highlights:
Lots of job fairs - www.lendman.com, www.geico.com,
www.professional-exchange.com.
MF, COBOL, CICS, TSO, $70-90K, email: recruiter@datasource.com
S/390 COBOL email: staffing@mitretek.org
IMS, PL/I Telco email: rob.robb@eds.com (tell them to give the
recruiting bonus to SHMUEL.)
MF, COBOL, CICS, IMS, email: isstaffing@bell-atl.com
Y2K interface manager, senior test manager, COBOL testers, email
jobs@unisys.com
COBOL, Oracle, $60-95K++, email: jay@CorporateRecruiters.com
MVS Performance and Planning, email: suzette.scott@worldspan.com
COBOL, SQL, S/390 Assembler email: erin_tipss@ccmail.northgrum.com
COBOL, CICS, IDMS, VSAM email: suzy_drews@ira.hodes.com GE Capital
Hit the search engine for more ads.
Enterprise ------- Canada -----------------
Mild? Oh, mild in the sense that you have to read between the lines. I
found this fascinating.
On Tue, 29 Sep 1998 04:00:58, Jo Anne Slaven <slaven@rogerswave.ca> wrote:
> A tale of two zeros
> Attitudes towards the Year 2000 computer problem range from concern to
> sheer panic
>
> Monday, September 28, 1998
> ELIZABETH CHURCH
> The Globe and Mail
>
> A pretty mild article, but it has links to www.year2000.com,
> www.y2ktimebomb.com, and www.nerc.com/y2k/.
>
> Don't usually see decent links in Canadian news.
>
> http://www.GlobeAndMail.CA/docs/news/19980928/ColumnOne/UCOLUN.html
Here are some quotes:
------------------------
"Our expectation is that there are going to be bumps," said Mr. Burns,
who is in charge of getting the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce ready
for the millennium change.
Mr. Burns said the bank plans to have all its systems ready 12 months
in advance, but it will also take precautions, including putting
critical staff up in downtown hotel rooms on Dec. 31, 1999, so they will
be nearby if there is trouble.
"I know where I will be that evening," he said. "My guess is by the time
we get there [to the dawn of the year 2000], there will be a lot more
people working than currently think it."
<He goes on to mention his generator, which he was planning to get
*anyway*. No-no, it's not Y2K... well, not really, no. Then he talks
about the nutcases who are doing more than buying generators, but wait,
the bank's gonna make them sleep in hotels near the computer so that
they can fix software that isn't going to break; no, no problems here,
we don't expect any but you, you, and you, you can't go home.>
"I've bumped into some that have gone over the edge," he said. "Part of
their problem is they understand what needs to be done and the
complexity of what needs to be done, and they just don't have the belief
it can be done in time."
<Right, *their* problem is they understand the problem at the bank.
When banking Y2K programmers are going over the edge... that's what I
call A CLUE. Hey, banks get it, no problems at banks, anyway they're
gonna make the programmers live near the computer... at least those who
haven't made a break for it. And what does "some" mean? Three, fifty?>
<What does "bump into" mean? They ask him to help load barrels of ammo
into their car after work, there's watercooler talk about tons of
freeze-dried food? Remember this is a guy who thinks the problem is
serious enough that 458 days in advance, he has plans to force his
critical staff to live near the computer and is buying a generator.>
<Ho-kay. Hey, let them read some reassuring marketing pamphlets.
That'll calm them down.>
<Then, astoundingly, the article continues with:>
When Ted Clark hears the stories about people stockpiling food, he just
smiles and shakes his head.
A veteran of Ottawa computer firm SHL Systemhouse Inc., Mr. Clark
joined Ontario Hydro last November to lead North America's largest
public utility in its race against the clock.
In the world of Y2K survivalists, he is sitting in one awfully hot seat.
Most hard-liners argue that the power grid is the weakest link in the
chain. With its reliance on computers to do everything from monitor
transmitters to run nuclear plants, they figure there is no way the
industry will be ready for the date change. Mr. Clark has cruised the
Internet. He knows about the predictions. And he wishes people would
settle down.
<Yes, you hard-liners out there, I see you, eyes darting around, pupils
dilated, settle down.>
"We have a responsibility to bring some balance to this situation and
try to offset some of the hysteria," he said in his corner office in
Ontario Hydro's shiny Toronto headquarters. "The last thing the economy
needs is a run on the bank or people dropping out."
<What does the power company care if there are bank runs?>
Since his arrival at Ontario Hydro, Mr. Clark has assembled a team of
600 regular and contract staff to track down date-sensitive equipment
and make it year-2000 compliant. He has a budget of $125-million and
plans to have the utility ready by next June. The last six months of the
year will be spent scenario-planning and getting response systems in
place.
<So a 600 person, $125 million project is going to slide the last brick
into place on June 1999 and everything will be just hunky-dory. They'll
have a *full* six months for "scenario-planning and getting response
systems in place." whatever that means. Uh, excusee-moi, what happened
to "done by December 1998 and all of 1999 for testing." The
catch-phrase used to be "testing", when did it morph into
"scenario-planning" and "response systems"? I'm afraid I didn't get
that memo. What scenarios are these? Canadians rioting, invading
Wisconsin and taking the cheese hostage?>
By that time, he said, the utility will also have identified any
weaknesses in its supply chain and begun stockpiling such supplies as
chemicals for power-generation plants.
<Sheesh, the banks say everything will be fine, we'll be sending out
the happy pamphlets any day now... but, you, you, and you won't be going
home, you'll be sleeping near the computer. Oh, and the utility won't
have problems either but, -surprise-, we're stockpiling supplies and
chemicals like a survivalist nut-case.>
<Then, when the paper rudely and directly asked the salient question...>
So, will the lights stay on?
Mr. Clark said he could never guarantee that because of the potential
for lawsuits. Besides, although he is working to get his own house in
order, there are other players in the game, such as local utilities,
over which he has no control.
--------- end quotes -----
The power company's Y2K Tzar goes, like, aba, a-ha, ah, lawyers,
darts *his* eyes around says he is working on the problem, but you know,
I can just imagine him shaking his head *no* and drawing a finger across
his throat.
And this lawsuit stuff is, well, baloney. How dumb are we? If you say
the power will stay up and the power stays up, there's no lawsuit. If
you don't say the power will stay up and the power doesn't stay up,
there's a lawsuit. It's only a problem if the power doesn't stay up.
The reason they're not talking is, they don't want to talk, it's too
embarrassing. They don't want to say, hey, we don't the F know, OK?
They don't want to field the follow up questions, why the H don't you
know, aren't you the experts? So they tap-dance all around the topic,
send out the brochures, talk about other industries.
Sure, some lawyers are scummy and risk aversive but, come ON. They are
not the problem, the problem is, the f*cking remediation didn't start in
1988 when it was supposed to, we didn't put a full court press on in
1997 as I thought we would have. The problem is, until full live tests
are run, we have no idea what's going to work and what isn't.
This doesn't necessarily flow to muties, firefights with crew-served
weapons on Mainstreet of Everytown. 40,000 people killed in the streets
of America... oops, no, we already kill 40,000 people in the streets
every year. Well, it doesn't flow to the collapse of the Soviet
Union... no, that happened already too; collapse of the world
economy then... no, that seems to be happening now, might be done by
2000. Whatever. The year 2000 software problem does not necessarily
mean the end of civilization... unless it does.
The point is, this is an adventure that's still unfolding.
Community ------ NOVA Y2K class ---------
Northern Virginia Y2K, http://www.novay2k.org
NOVA Y2K held an intro to Y2K class a couple miles from my office. There
were about 20 attendees, lots of questions, good audience interaction,
several of the guests were angry, worried, and more than a little
concerned.
After the meeting, I spoke with the organizers. They are working on
research papers and putting together a roving speaker program. Contact
them if your church, business, or community group would like to hear a
NOVA Y2K presentation.
NOVA Y2K is at Edwards 3-4 and Eastabrook 3. They are on the mild side
of the DC Y2K Weather Reports.
Community ------- Y2K Wise ---------------
Anne Arundel County Y2K, email: y2kwise@bigfoot.com
4 hour Y2K-a-thon, the speaker was the cool and debonaire Jim
Lord, $3 admission, 250 attendees, organized from zero in less than 4
weeks. Publicized via press releases, word of mouth, mentioned on Tony
Keyes' Y2K Investor radio program. Oh, and on the last DC WRP too.
Jim spotted me trying to sneak a quarter pounder with cheese and
medium fries into the no food/no drinks auditorium. -burp-
Jim told the standard facts, issued the standard disclaimers, got the
usual laughs and groans, you've heard it before and it's all in his
book. Jim's talk was on the mild side too, call it Edwards 3.0 and
Eastabrook 2.5.
There were lots of questions, the word is out folks. They know. If
you thunk you have until late next year, thunk again. There were 250
people there, some came from over 100 miles away. They know.
Here's another clue from the king of cluelessness, I hide on USENET
and behind a case sensitive URL. They knew me. Just as the WDC Y2K'ers
knew paul milne and are reading his postings, they are reading and
watching. They know what's about to happen.
I hung out in the back, chatted with them during the break and after
Jim's talk. More clues, Jim spoke to 6,000 in Atlanta, Atlanta knows.
One attendee reported that people start to cry when he tells them about
Y2K... and he's not trying to scare them, he tells them the facts and
they're afraid. ...my pension, my savings, I'm too old to start over,
what about my kids, I don't know what I'll do... they know and they're
afraid.
Y2K Wise asked me to speak at a future meeting. I'm not a public
speaker and I'm concerned that *my* message is not for the general
public. When the alarmists speak (other than milne), they hedge
on the enterprise systems issue, everything is phrased in terms of
*possibilities*. Having seen and debugged enterprise scale systems
failures, I'm absolutely certain of the problem.
The work will not be completed, the systems will fail. What I don't
know about are the social consequences.
...do you feel lucky today ... well, do you?
Awareness----- They Know ------------
C.s.y2k and the long term readers of the DC Y2K Weather Reports are
insiders. I've run into people who've been following the WRP's
or lurking in c.s.y2k for a year. Several I met by chance and not
due to any Y2K connection. I extrapolate from that to a readership of
at least 100,000.
I've seen my word-twists and verbal pictures drift into common usage.
There's a web out there, it's partially driven by the internet,
partially by human nature, we're curious, we try to make sense out of
disorder, we'rs concerned about our future.
I'm guessing that most WRP readers are not following c.s.y2k, the noise
and message volume is high. I dropped de Jager's listserv last year
because the noise level and message volume was too high. At that time,
c.s.y2k had a higher information content... I suspect it still does.
C.s.y2k has higher perceived value to me, I use a very high performance
newsreader. I can download a full day of c.s.y2k in a few minutes at
33.6 K. and scan, next-doc, mark-thread-as-read, spending 2-5 seconds
per article... unless it's something I want to read carefully.
Y2K awareness has flipped over a threshold. This is both good news
and bad. The sheeple are bleating, I'm scared, my pension, what about
my kids, where is the leadership, why don't they "get it", what are we
gonna do?
The bad news is we're out of time for triage; triage had to happen by
day 500, we're at day 458 now. We're almost out of time for
contingencies, disaster recovery, stockpiling.
And what's very odd is if you look out the window, everything looks
normal. How could this be? It looks so normal... the systems are still
running.
The good news is, the systems are still running. The stores are full of
produce, 7-11 had backpacks for $4 and $5. 'Bee brand Albacore tuna is
$1.67 a can. A can of tuna, a lb of pasta (you metric-impaired readers
can call it a half-kilo), a can of cream of mushroom soup and you have a
hot meal for 4 people. ...or what Frank and I would call lunch for two.
They know. The herd is starting to move. We're lost our headstart.
But this is OK, I have a month maybe two months of food. If the runs
start now, the systems still work, the stores will be restocked in two
days, cleaned out, restocked, cleaned out, it can happen over and over
until every basement, every garage, every back yard shed is full.
If you don't have a month of food, at least a month, don't wait. Get a
couple hundred dollars and do your grocery shopping tonight; if you have
a 24 hour store, wait until they're asleep and slip over there at
midnight or at 5 AM. Don't panic, buy things you like but in quantity
and for long term storage. It's not steak and eggs time, you want 'Bee
brand tuna, roast beef hash (I knock off 4 cans a month, it's my
Saturday breakfast, couple eggs, canned hash, yum, that's the life.)
Last week I found two pound jars of orange marmalade for 99 cents. Hot
bisquits, orange marmalade, tea, is that roughing it or is that
elevating the quality of life?
It might take a couple early morning sneak-trips to the grocery store.
-shush- Keep this one quiet. You're not getting ready for Y2K, you're
prepping for a preliminary panic... now that the herd is starting to
moooo-ve.
Last week, I thought we had months, but things changed, they know. My
plan is to build up to 6 months by the end of 1998. I'll still do it.
This burst of awareness isn't a problem. This isn't the big one, we
might see Johnny Carson style shortages but I'm hoping not overall
chaos.
They know.
Community ------ Y2K-Recovery ------------
Summarizing, if there are near term, mini-panics. I will not be a part
of those, I'm prepared for that. If there's a run on the grocery
stores, like the day before Thanksgiving combined with a snow alert.
I'll just stay home. I've got enough to last a month or two.
If things stay quiet, I'll continue to prep, low key; oh look, a sale on
canned corn, snag a case for the rotating inventory.
The real issue is recovery. Restarting the grid, turning commerce back
on, restoring confidence in the banking system, the stock market, the
government... whoa, have you bought into Infomagic's concept of the new
Dark Ages?
No. While it is a possibility, both SHMUEL and I give it a low
probability. Whatever the probablity, if we spiral down, crashland, hit
the wall, if it gets real bad, real fast, the issue is recovery.
Frank is working the machine tool problem. I've been muttering about
comms. It won't take more than a few months to restart the fiber
optics. That infrastructure is vulnerable to software, power, fire, and
civil disturbances but once things settle down, the fiber optic network
could be restored quickly.
Same with the power grid, the internet, broadcast radio and TV, the fuel
pipelines... as long as civil disturbances are minimal, these things can
be brought back quickly.
What will take time to restore is the confidence in the financial
system. If the stock market hadn't hyper-inflated over the last 15
years, if we had a steady 3-8 percent rise in the DJIA, it wouldn't be a
problem. Unfortunately, the DJIA is a balloon about to pop
When the crash occurs, we'll have to take innovative and extreme
measures to restart the economy.
The trick is to see through the fog, recognize the goal and work toward
that.
Clueless -------- CCCC ------------
No one knows what will happen but SHMUEL and I expect to be very
surprised. We, society, are doing a lot of things wrong. This is a
singularity, you have to prepare but history is not a guide on this one,
fog of war, all battle plans last until the first shot is fired.
I have rumors, offline reports of incredible problems in the
remediation. Most of what we're being told is dis-information,
homogenized truth-lets mixed with wishful thinking, optimistic status
reports... let's mark this one compliant because, well, we hope to get
to it next month and we need some good news, the boss wants it.
The nice thing about computers is that they don't respond to wishing
real hard. They're not like people, they work or they don't and a
confident demeanor doesn't cut it with the machine.
30 years (or more) of complex systems are about to go a little funny.
Emmet Paige, the DoD's Assistant Secretary of C cubed I (or something
like that)... anyway, he was "The Old Man" as far as computers and Y2K
goes for the DoD.... well, the heneral, the old man squealed, I'm
scared, I don't know what to do, -sob-, (did you see the general break
down in "Starship Troopers") I'm not saying that's Emmet Paige, but not
only did he bail, but his entire staff squealed and ran for the door,
get outa my way, there's a handicapped person, let's knock him down, me
first.
Tell me again, how many years did Paige bark out orders in a command
voice? More powerpoint, I wanna see 3-D color graphs, I'm a high-tech
leader in a technological military, I've got shiny shoes... and how
many years did the code-heads, the crew on the line make do, patch the
systems, no SHARE this year, our budget got cut, how many systems were
neglected, under staffed, under funded, running the old 1980's mainframe
instead of a G5 9672 parallel sysplex. How many military gear-heads
have their own desktop S/390 or departmental P390E server?
How many of the military systems are kludge coded? Anyone remember Ada?
Wha-ha-ha-ha-ha. Why didn't they cut a deal with IBM for PL/X? PL/X
for the hard core code, S/390 assembler for the real hard core code and
Rexx for everything else. Military systems running rock solid OS/390
instead of every nutcase fad language, OS, of the day.
Like everything else in life, they have a patchwork quilt of horrible
and idiotic mixed with terrific and brilliant. I don't have any special
insight into the Pentagon's system. Sure, my office is a few miles from
"Fort Funny", I did sneak in there once, it was official business but
we didn't have the right paperwork so our project leader bluffed our way
in using his Fairfax County library card.
The horrible and idiotic is about to collapse and it will take some of
the terrific and brilliant with it. That's the nature of systems.
Like everyone else, the DoD has spent the last 15 years neglecting its
mission critical enterprise systems and where they've done some work,
it's been to consolidate and aggregate processing and data. They've
created more single points of failure... the key phrase is, "Mega Data
Center"
They've turned 50 medium sized systems into 1 giganta-wanta system;
instead of machines at every site, qualified staff all around the world,
they've concentrated the processing and specialists into fewer and fewer
locations. It's efficient, it saves money, and when everything works
well, it's the smart thing to do. When it doesn't, when the processing
goes bad, when the Archiver/Space manager goes wacky, it will take out
too much, all at once to fix.
This isn't about the DoD and their Mega Data Centers, they're just a
metaphor. It's happening everywhere, Worldcom buys MCI, hospitals form
alliances, less and less diversity, more single points of failure, and
the systems get more patched together and fewer people understand the
scope and the details.
Here's another clue, the rep from BankBoston was on the radio yesterday,
BankBoston will *not* make their December 1998 deadline, Oh, they'll be
close, they're the ones who reported in the 1997 Newsweek article that
they had been breaking a major sweat for a while. BankBoston has been
open about their full court press. Where does this place the *other*
banks, the ones that reported starting their adventure in 1998? What
about the ones that are still thinking about doing an assessment?
I'm guessing that sometime in the spring of 1999, BankBoston will slam
the last brick into place... success! And milne will have to change his
challenge to "name TWO banks ....." that's two banks out of thousands.
It's like those games where you pile up sticks or cards until they fall.
cory hamasaki 458 days, 11,008 hours.