Cory Hamasaki's DC Y2K Weather Report V2, # 40
"October 6, 1998 - 451 days to go." WRP96
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--------------------tearline -----------------------------
Please fax or email copies of this to your geek pals, especially those
idiots who keep sending you lightbulb, blonde, or Bill Gates jokes,
and urban legends like the Arizona rocket car story.
If you have a Y2K webpage, feel free to host the Weather Reports.
Did you miss Geek Out?
Project Dumbass needs you.
In this issue:
1. Victoria
2. W2NSD/1
3. DC
4. Administrative (skip over.)
5. CCCC
Global ------ Victoria -------------
About a week ago, Bev started writing a series of reports about a
natural gas refinery explosion in Australia, death and injury, millions
of people without heat, manufacturing, bakeries, shutdown, no hot water
for cleaning, fights breaking out in stores. Electric skillets
vanishing from the shelves. A world-wide search for specialists in
repairing gas production systems.
The c.s.y2k discussion considered the possibility that this was a
computer, date, y2k problem. There's no evidence to point to that. That
clue would flow from simulaneous similar failures around the world,
failures following the sun, -boom- Australia, -boom- Malasia, -boom-
India, etc. It didn't happen. This wasn't like the failures of the
Aluminum refineries or the StorTek peripheral. Those followed the sun.
..then the c.s.y2k discussion devolved into a comparison with sports
riots, "You call THAT a riot, THIS is a riot." Thanks guys.
I hadn't seen boo on this on the evening news or in the local
newspapers. After about a week, I wondered if this wasn't fabricated,
no millions freezing and fighting over scraps of bread. So I
checked... It's true! No only are there reports out of Australia
exactly as posted but there were no pickups, rewrites in the
U.S. press. Take a look in Nexis.
A million people, more, without natural gas, and the only thing in the
news is Alan Derchowits, Dershovitz, ah, whatever, the radical law
professor who defended O.J. sticking 'is beak into the Starr report.
But it happened, just as the underground power cable failed in New
Zealand, even when everything is normal, every now and then, some
critical piece of the infrastructure says, nah, I ain't playing your
game, -boom- and in an instant, the world ends as we know it and it
takes day and night efforts for weeks to restore our civilization.
Out there, in the billions of embeddeds, in the millions of software
packages, in the 50,000 odd S/390's, the 400,000 AS/400's and an unknown
(to me) number of S/3x, Vaxen, DG, etc. systems, out there, critical
pieces of the infrastructure are waiting and watching, you in? We'll
show them who's boss... I'm getting tired of printing these Medicare
checks... tired of their cr*p... when I give the signal, we all go nutz,
who's with me.
They talk to each other - plan and scheme, we don't know what they're up
to, no one understands the systems anymore. Yeah, they still spit out
the cash when we press the ATM buttons but behind the panel, out on the
private nets, they're glancing at their calendars, thinking, only a
few more days until ....
Awareness --------- W2NSD/1 is in --------
Ham's are in. W2NSD/1, the infamous Wayne Green, has been cruizin' Gary
North's page. The current issue of 73 magazine carries a half page of
"Yikes! Run for it." in Wayne's column. I should mention that I sent
Wayne a full page on Y2K about 4 months ago.... 4 months, that's about
long enough for him to look into it and ... oopsie ... decide to get
the word out!
Wayne also gripes about the poor turn out for ARES, Amateur Radio
Emergency Service, exercises and scolds the useless curmudgeons who
think, I did my time, now it's time for someone else to carry the load.
I've noticed more callsigns in c.s.y2k in the last couple weeks. Thanks
Wayne.
Local Government ------ Dee Cee --------
The Saturday Washington Post carried a nice article about the Dee Cee
Government's Y2K status. Before we discuss that, you Virginia residents
will be relieved to know that some of your government officials have
cosidered securing the Potomac Bridges. I can't tell you who, under
what circumstances, or the extent of the planning ... just that it has
come up. Shusssh.
Here's some fair use doctine quotes from the post, take 10 minutes to
read them and I'll be right back with your Y2K quiz.
The full text will be at http://www.washingtonpost.com until Oct 17,
1998
---------- snip -------------
2000 Is Too Soon, D.C. Officials Say
By Eric Lipton
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, October 3, 1998; Page B01
The year 2000 fix will cost the District six times more than has been
budgeted, but even if an additional $117 million can be found, the city
is so far behind that it won't be able to finish the necessary computer
repairs in time, D.C. officials warned Congress yesterday.
"What we don't know is which of the operations in our 75 agencies
will fail," D.C. Chief Technology Officer Suzanne Peck told the
House panel that oversees District affairs. "But what we do know is
that some will fail."
Of the city's 336 computer systems, only 25 percent are confirmed to
be free of flaws that would cause them to malfunction or crash Jan. 1,
2000, Peck said. Thirty-five percent need to be repaired and then
tested, and the remaining 40 percent need tests to ensure they are
trouble-free.
..
The city did not focus in earnest on the problem until this past June,
unlike Maryland, Virginia and many area county governments that
started their 2000 repair effort at least two years ago.
..
To date, the District has budgeted $22 million for its 2000 repair effort
and spent about $8.5 million. Peck and D.C. Chief Management
Officer Camille C. Barnett told the House panel that the city now
projects it will cost as much as $130 million to fix all of its systems.
..
¸ Copyright 1998 The Washington Post Company
-----------end snip-------------
Done? Close your books students.
Q1. If Virginia and Maryland started 2 years ago and aren't done and Dee
Cee started June 1998, when will Dee Cee be done?
a. The twelfth of never.
b. December 1998, leaving all of 1999 for testing.
c. Is that crack for the mayor?
d. Lets have another management meeting.
Q2. The Dee Cee Chief Technology Officer says, "What we don't know is
which of the operations in our 75 agencies will fail." You could infer
from this:
a. They're gonna start assessment, any day now.
b. The crack is for the mayor.
c. VA, MD residents should watch for sales on food and ammo.
d. We need more management meetings.
Dee Cee is looking for 117 million more dollars for Y2K repairs. This
means:
a. They won't finish.
b. The budget analysts should respread the burn rate.
c. The price of crack went up.
d. They're catering the meetings now, donuts for everyone.
This would be funny except that this is the city where the school roofs
leak and the roads don't drain, where bodies rot in the city morgue
because the electric bill isn't paid. Where classic federal era
townhouses, stone work, turrets, copper or slate roofs, a 30 minute walk
from the U.S. capital, lie abandoned, boarded up, because people are
afraid to live there. I'm talking about New York Avenue.
The place is a disgrace, congress and the U.S. taxpayers have poured
millions, nah, billions into it and it's gone up the mayor's nose.
And now, with 451 days to go, they're 8 million dollars into a 130
million dollar enterprise systems renovation effort. Yeah, it'll get
done, just like the FAA was 99% done on Sept 30, 1998.
Dee Cee is a parody of Y2K. As horrible as they are, they're not really
that much worse off than anyone else. The work should have started in
1990, it should have been a cost is no object, death march in 1997.
It's now October 1998 and Dee Cee is thinking about maybe holding a kick
off meeting some time soon.
Denial-heads, I'm not making this stuff up. Hit the archive at
http://www.washingtonpost.com, the story will be accessable for two
weeks. If you think I'm hyping this, well, contact your congressman and
ask him to vote against the additional funding for Dee Cee's Y2K effort.
But if you suspect that there is slightest possibility that the problem
is 1/10th what the Washington Post is reporting, well,
http://www.glitchproof.com has food storage containers and
http://www.ammoman.com has 5.56 SS93 and SS109. And you'll
wanna tape the 30 rnd mags jungle-style, just in case.
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Administrative stuff, if this is not your cup of tea, please skip down
to CCCC at the end... thanks.
I've received more inquiries about WRP subscriptions. OK, we're going
subscription but here's the deal.
The WRP's are a shareware, ezine thing. I'll upload the current WRP to
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If you are a corporation, especially a Fortune 5000, you shouldn't be
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and code-heads. Corporate rates are $99/year if circulated by
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internal copies made unofficially by the code-head underground.)
We'll mail it out biweekly, two ezines in one mailing, better formatting
and maybe a some goodies, such as pictures of WDC meetings, maybe
even photos of the rare and elusive paul milne and tim burke, schematic
diagrams, stuff that doesn't transmit well over USENET. You've seen me
try to do graphics; with the printed edition, I can use my graphics
program.
Both ezine ($50/year) and print edition ($99/year) subscribers will
receive a couple confidential, will not be on the web, alerts during the
year, maybe a diskette with some software... I have no idea but I'll see
what I can come up with.
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$$$$$ -------- Advertisers --------------
If you have a Y2K product or service, drop me a note about it and I'll
include a brief announcement in a WRP or on the website. The
announcements are free but are limited to space available. Let's keep
under to about 4 lines. If you want a link from my site and the WRP,
it's $99. Links cost but phone numbers, email, and mailing addresses
are free. How's that for a concept?
For Y2K community groups, I'll run brief announcements, lets say 20
words, "Y2K group forming in your town, email youraddress@your.isp"
This is a no-cost, as space is available service.
For groups who have been around for a while, you should have Paloma and
CY2KR link to your page. The WRPs are for alerts, high impact, here, now
sort of things.
Help --------- Links and Things -----------
If you have a Y2K page, help the cause by linking your page to either my
site or to one of the DC WRP mirror sites.
If you have something new to say about Y2K, email the article and I'll
run it in a WRP. I'd like to carry a mix of information. Not just
enterprise systems stuff but your thoughts on the subject too.
---------------- CCCC ---------------------
OK, start reading again here.
So that's the balance. Everything's still free but some of you have
offered to pitch in a couple bucks to help with the research and the
program.
We have 451 days now. There isn't enough time to fix the systems. I
know, Infomagic knows, SHMUEL, the enterprise systems programmers know.
If you haven't run code on a full-house ES9000, ESCON Channels, 5 page
per SECOND laser printers, tape robots, you can't understand the
complexity and power of large systems.
In the old, old days, people talked of the power of ASP, Attached
Support Processor, where a dedicated support processor prepared and
scheduled jobs for the main processor.
In 451 days, the scheduler is going wacky and the power of the system
will end.
What happens when the systems fail? We won't be able to fix the large
complex production systems. We won't be able to implement commercial
packages. We won't be able to do the work manually. There isn't enough
time, will, or expertise to do this. Over half of the systems running
now will fail. I base this claim on the statistics coming out of the
GAO reports on compliance.
How much of the computing infrastructure will continue running on
autopilot, corrupting data but producing 90% accurate results, losing
every tenth record, or scrambling the answers?
How do these failures flow to failures in the real world? Who will die,
what companies will fail, ...and who will make a fortune in the
recovery. Will we see the second U.S. Civil War or a dynamic period of
building and expansion?
I can't see the future that clearly. Whatever happens, it will be
different and maybe, if we're good, kind, hardworking, resourceful,
prepare, and really, really lucky, it will be a better world.
I don't know what the right thing to do is.
I know what the wrong things are:
1. Hope for the best... and do nothing.
2. Project your denial onto the population in general and work to
dissuade them from taking personal action.
3. Don't fix the code, it's hopeless anyway.
4. Load up on ammo so you can blast away when the ball drops.
5. Reside in an artificial environment when *it* happens.
I don't know what will happen but the good news is, the physical
infrastructure will remain intact. We will still have the farms,
bridges, roads, harbors, fibre optic lines, power transmission towers
and buildings and tools.
I feel that some positive (no promises) actions are:
1. Be less dependent on the supply chain. You have your Bug-Out Bag
good for 3 days, and 2 months of food and other essentials in your
basement. 2 months was easy, cans of food and macaroni that you'll
rotate in and use.
2. Start working on six months. Six months is harder, six months isn't
just 3X beans and rice, it's stocking the stuff that you might not worry
about for the short haul.
4. Prep your house, weatherstrip, set up extra storage in the basement
or workroom.
3. Hone your skills. One point of the Flashlight experiment is to haul
out the soldering pencil and wire cutters, surprise, I can't solder as
well as I used to, my close vision, judgement and manual dexterity isn't
what it used to be.
4. Develop alternate sources of income. While I expect enterprise
systems programmers to be in demand as the mainframes fall over,
the chaotic future will change the demand for various skillsets.
5. Select multiple stores of wealth. Gold is OK but it's not
the only approach.
6. Build your support network. Do you have a pal struggling to make a
go of his farm? Take the kids out there, camp in a tent and help him
fix up the place. It'll be fun and useful.
When it happens, my high probability scenario is for an unwinding
of the economy as corporations and the government collapse. There
could be political gridlock, much like the current situation in Russia.
Jobs will vanish, but we're seeing ATT, Intel, Boston Market, and
numerous other companies give their staff the heave-ho now. What will
be different is the degree.
The stock market falls, maybe to DJI 4,000... but then we fell from
9,200 to 7,500 so we're 1/3rd there now. ...and everything's still
working!
But these are nits, hardly worth discussing. I know a guy who lost his
life savings in the stock market, in two years his portfolio went from
about a million dollars to fifty grand. I know lots of Yuppies who
think they are rich or near rich because they have a half million or a
couple million bucks in their 401(k) and investment accounts. These are
all at risk.
You idiots out there who update your networth every day... do you have a
graph that shows your trend over the last 9 months? Have you noticed
that your yuppie pals have stopped crowing about how well they did with
Microsoft, Cisco, Yahoo? Some of them have lost hundreds of thousands
of dollars this year.
I'm not predicting the future, just pointing out that there has been a
big change in the investment climate and everything's still working!
Last week, Louie Ruykheiser said the R-word on Wall Street Week.
What am I doing? nothing. I still have my 401(k)'s with my two
previous employers; I haven't rebalanced the funds, still 40% in
equities. Hmmmm, I haven't seen the 3Q statements yet from either.
They're running a little late... oh well, I can wait.
There are other scenario's, lots of them. ...I'm betting on a bad
recession and maybe some inflation as the Fed (or what's left of it)
tries to re-energize the economy. Hopefully we won't make the same
mistakes they made in the 1930's where they continued to fight
inflation as the economy tanked out.
It's important to keep money circulating because that is what makes
things happen.
Get ready, something's about to happen.
cory hamasaki 451 Days, 10,839 hours.